Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Bulls Eye $3,725 and $44 on Fed Cut Boost
LONDON (September 22) Gold and silver opened the week steady as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut and guidance that points to additional easing later this year. The Fed framed the move as a “risk-management” step, noting inflation risks remain tilted to the upside while growth cools at the margin.
Lower expected policy rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and typically support precious metals.
Futures positioning still shows hedging demand from real-asset allocators, and central-bank purchases—led by emerging markets—continue to provide a durable bid. The offset: a firmer U.S. dollar recovered last week’s dip, trimming bullion’s momentum even as policy turns friendlier.
Equities Run, Metals Hold; Watch the Dollar and Yields
Global stocks extended gains, siphoning some flows from defensive assets. The dollar’s rebound and slightly higher real yields tightened financial conditions just enough to cap new inflows into gold ETFs.
“The Fed’s glide path matters more than the single cut,” one macro strategist said, highlighting that the rate trajectory into 2025–2026 remains the key driver.
With no top-tier U.S. data at the start of the week, speeches from FOMC officials—including Chair Jerome Powell—could shift currency and rates, setting the tone for metals. If the dollar softens on guidance of further easing, gold and silver would likely benefit; if officials lean hawkish, near-term rallies could stall.
Silver’s Industrial Pulse vs. Safe-Haven Bid
Silver straddles two stories: safe-haven appeal and industrial pull. Fabrication demand tied to electronics and photovoltaics has grown rapidly, with solar manufacturing now accounting for roughly a third of silver’s industrial use, according to industry estimates. That linkage makes silver more sensitive to global PMIs and supply-chain signals than gold.
On the investment side, coin and bar purchases remain healthy, while ETF flows are mixed, tracking swings in the dollar and rates. Geopolitical tensions keep a modest risk premium in both metals, but silver’s path is also tied to factory activity, clean-energy build-outs, and grid investment.
In short, the policy backdrop is turning more supportive, yet the near-term balance hinges on the dollar’s direction and whether industrial indicators confirm a late-year acceleration.
Short-Term Forecast
Gold holds above $3,700, targeting $3,725–$3,745, while silver trades at $43.69, eyeing $44.11. Both metals show bullish momentum, though overbought RSI hints at potential pullback risk.
Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis
Gold – Chart
Gold is trading near $3,715 after breaking decisively above the $3,700 resistance level on the 4-hour chart. Price remains within an ascending channel, with the 50-EMA ($3,650) acting as dynamic support during recent pullbacks. Momentum is strengthening, with RSI at 68, approaching overbought territory but not yet flashing reversal signals.
Immediate resistance lies near $3,725, followed by the channel’s upper boundary around $3,745–$3,760. On the downside, support sits at $3,700, then $3,650 if price retraces.
As long as gold holds above $3,700, the technical bias favors further upside, though traders should watch for rejection wicks or reversal candles near the upper channel line.
Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Silver – Chart
Silver is trading near $43.69, extending its rally after breaking above the $42.97 resistance and pushing into new Fibonacci extension levels. The 4-hour chart shows momentum accelerating, with price now testing the 1.414 extension at $43.73, while the next key targets sit at $44.11 (1.618) and $44.81 (2.0).
The 50-EMA at $42.02 is trending higher and providing dynamic support, underlining the short-term bullish bias. Meanwhile, RSI at 72 signals overbought conditions, suggesting limited room before a possible pullback or consolidation.
As long as silver holds above $42.95–$43.00, buyers may continue driving toward the mid-$44 zone, though profit-taking could cause volatility.
FXEmpire
