Mining’s Bull Market Still Has Not Fully Arrived
NEW YORK (February 3) Mining companies are entering a new phase of the metals cycle marked by expanding margins, stronger balance sheets, and a growing gap between market prices and the assumptions still guiding corporate decisions, according to Nicole Adshead-Bell, director of Cupel Advisory.
Speaking with Kitco Mining’s Digging Deep at the VRIC 2026, Adshead-Bell said rising gold, silver, and copper prices are setting producers up for strong financial results, while also creating an unfamiliar challenge for management teams. “We are generating so much cash, what do we do with that cash?” she said.
Adshead-Bell argued that while spot prices have moved sharply higher, much of the industry remains anchored to conservative pricing frameworks that no longer reflect market conditions. Consensus pricing continues to influence analyst models, reserve calculations, and transaction valuations, even as it trails both spot prices and forward curves, according to Adshead-Bell. “If you believed consensus pricing, you wouldn’t invest in this asset class based on the premiums to NAV based on consensus data,” she said.
Adshead-Bell believes that disconnect is increasingly shaping strategic decisions across the sector. When companies rely on outdated price assumptions, they risk undervaluing long-life assets or making portfolio moves that fail to capture the full economic potential of higher prices. She added that reserve and resource growth driven by higher reference prices and lower cutoffs can expand ounces on paper, but does not always translate into stronger project quality or margins.
As cash flow builds, Adshead-Bell said merger and acquisition activity is beginning to re-emerge, supported by stronger balance sheets and improved access to capital. She noted that incentives are also shifting, with management teams and boards more financially secure than in past cycles, potentially reducing resistance to transactions. However, she said broader institutional participation remains limited, adding that “generalists are not yet in the sector.”
Adshead-Bell also highlighted royalty and streaming companies as beneficiaries of the current environment, citing their high-margin business models and ability to deploy capital efficiently. These companies, she said, often act as an early entry point for larger pools of capital before investment flows more widely into mining equities.
Looking ahead, Adshead-Bell said the central challenge for producers will be aligning capital allocation decisions with market realities. While higher prices have created flexibility across balance sheets, she cautioned that pricing models that lag the market risk misallocating capital and leaving long-term value unrealized as the cycle continues.
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