Wall Street and Main Street majorities expect gold to break $3,400/oz next week with key inflation and consumer data on the docket

NEW YORK (August 9) It was another rollercoaster week for precious metals traders, particularly over the last two trading days after reports of tariffs on gold bars sparked panic. But while the report was ultimately dismissed by the White House, the gold price stayed right up where it was at the peak of the uncertainty: On the very edge of $3,400.

Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $3,360.52, and after a quick dip down to test support near $3,345 per ounce around 9:15 p.m. Sunday evening, the yellow metal embarked on its first of several runs, topping out at $3,383 per ounce 15 minutes after the North American open on Monday. 

After a second attempt to hold $3,380 failed late Monday evening, gold slid all the way back down to the weekly low of $3,350 per ounce by 7:30 a.m. EDT on Tuesday. But the yellow metal got a massive push off this level, rocketing all the way to $3,390 per ounce just before noon Eastern. 

Once again, traders were unable to push gold higher, and by 7 a.m. EDT Wednesday, gold was trading at $3,360 per ounce. Once again, the buyers arrived with the North American session, pushing gold to the edge of $3,380 per ounce by late morning. 

Wednesday evening finally saw significant buying from Asian and European traders, with spot gold hitting a new weekly high of $3,396 per ounce by 3:45 a.m. EDT. And once the report of U.S. import tariffs on Swiss gold hit the wires late Thursday afternoon, gold finally broke through resistance at $3,400. 

With speculation swirling overnight and through Friday morning’s trading session, gold prices whipsawed within a $20 range, challenging resistance at $3,400 every couple of hours. But perhaps most remarkably, a White House announcement that the tariffs would not be imposed did nothing more than provoke another test of support at $3,380, after which gold bounced right back up to the very edge of $3,400 per ounce, where it continued to trade into the weekend.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed industry experts firmly back in bullish territory, while retail traders maintained their renewed bullish bias on gold’s near-term prospects.

“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “The more things change, the more things stay the same. [Thursday afternoon] saw the announcement from the US administration that gold bars can have tariffs put on them. Of course. When trade policy is limited to one word, why not?”

“Unchanged,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “I expect it will take a little time for the recent news about tariffs on gold bars out of Switzerland to work its way through the system. Wait and see this week looking for clarity… or another pivot from President Trump.”

“Up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “I’ve been bullish for a long time and see no reason to change now. For spot gold it’s the 3435 level that sticks out as it held three tests in May, June, and Jul,y but so far each of those have brought smaller retracements or pullbacks, so I think bulls are still in it and can force a breakout.”

“The bigger level is that 3500 spot that was in-play in April, and I’m hoping the next test of that happens after a grinding trend rather than a fast breakout, as that would be reason for bulls to stall out if it trades in short order,” Stanley added. “For support, 3350 was big last week and that’s what I’m looking to for pullbacks.”

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said the true signal of a breakout for gold prices will come from the spot market, and it hasn’t happened yet.

“The December futures (GCZ5), the main traded contract on COMEX, hit a fresh record high overnight at USD 3,534, with the premium above London spot blowing out to more than USD 100 from around USD 40 this time last week,” he noted. “All developments that—for now—solidify the London spot price (XAUUSD) as the most reliable source telling us what the real value of gold is.”

“Do not look at technical breakouts in the futures market as the price action is currently taken hostage by movements in the EFP,” Hansen cautioned. “What counts is what the spot price is doing, and it remains stuck in a range since April, with a break above USD 3,450 needed to change that.”

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said the gold tariffs story just adds more fuel to the fire, and September rate cuts are already reflected in the gold price.

“I’ve got to think most of it's priced in,” he said. “We just hit another all-time high.” 

Lusk agreed that if the market really expected a 39% tariff on gold coming from Switzerland, then COMEX would be much higher, so he believed it would be walked back at some point, which ultimately happened later on Friday.

But even without new tariffs, he sees a market primed for a break – whether to the upside or to the downside. 

“I just think there's too much uncertainty, and that's why these highs are made overnight when there's nobody in, on very light volume for the most part,” he said. “I think there's enough uncertainty to drive you to go both directions, really. You're up here, you made a new all-time high. What's going to be the extension? Near-term, you're firing people at the BLS, you’ve got additional dovish members coming into the Fed. The rates are going to be lowered at some point.”

Then on the other side, there’s the stronger dollar and the potential for international conflicts cooling down. “That would be actually bearish, and you're overbought,” he said. 

Turning to the near-term price action, Lusk said that anything that drives gold significantly below $3,400 could spark a selloff. “It would send prices back down to about $3,280,” he said. “But an extension here, 40% higher is the next target. And that's up at $3,690, $3,697 is the target. That's based on everything that's going on here.”

As for next week’s data, Lusk doesn’t think higher inflation numbers will derail the market’s expectations for a September rate cut, which he believes could be as high as 50 basis points. 

“There's nothing going on with housing, food, and energy are not rising except for cattle prices,” he said. “Where is this inflationary? Where's the supply inflation going to come from when home prices aren't moving, plus nobody can get a mortgage? That's more stagnation.” 

“Cut the rates,” Lusk said. “Let's be honest, a quarter-point does nothing. I think the next meeting, they're going to go 50.” 

This week, 10 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street bulls back in control after this week’s gold drama and solid gains. Six experts, or 60%, expect to see gold prices rise further during the week ahead, while only one, representing 10%, predicted a price decline. The remaining three analysts, or 30%, saw the yellow metal’s price trading sideways next week. 

Meanwhile, 188 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors retaining their bullish majority opinion. 129 retail traders, or 69%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while only 23, or 12%, expected the yellow metal to lose ground. The remaining 36 investors, or 19%, saw prices continuing to consolidate during the week ahead.

Next week’s economic news picks up again, with key measures of inflation and the health of consumers on the docket.

Early Tuesday morning will see the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision, with markets pricing in a 25 basis point reduction from 3.85% to 3.60%. Then traders will turn their attention to the U.S. CPI report for July, which is expected to show core inflation ticking up to 0.3% from 0.2% in June. 

Wednesday is a slow day, with the highlight comments from Fed governors Goolsbee and Bostic, but the data picks up again on Thursday with U.S. PPI – with core inflation forecast to rise 0.2% after a flat reading in June – as well as weekly jobless claims.

The week wraps up with an in-depth look at the American consumer, with Retail Sales for July expected to tick down from 0.6% to 0.5%, while core retail sales are projected to drop to 0.3% from 0.6% in June. Then later in the morning, preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for August will tell markets what consumers are expecting going forward. 

“I look for Gold to pull back after testing $3410 before the weekend,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “US rates and USD may trade higher ahead of Tuesday’s CPI, which is expected to have risen (both headline and core) for the third consecutive month. Also, there is a reasonable chance that the White House clarifies the tariffs, which were applied to some gold imports.”

“I think a pullback toward $3355 may provide a lower risk entry level (basis spot),” he added. “Meanwhile, the US Treasury seems to be getting closer to re-valuing its gold holdings closer to prevailing market prices as many in Europe have already done.” 

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, was already looking past the news of U.S. tariffs on Swiss gold on Friday morning.

“I am leaning towards the fact that this is just a misunderstanding of the gold market – why do some bars have the tariff and some don't? – and so I think it's probably a misunderstanding.”

Turning to next week, Day said he is more interested in the consumer data than the inflation data.

“I am not expecting any huge run-up in the consumer price index, or the PPI, frankly,” he said. “But the other two, the consumer sentiment and the retail sales, are likely to continue to show weakness – maybe not as dramatic weakness as the jobs report.”

“The jobs report was particularly weak, but it also came after Powell’s emphasizing how solid the jobs market is, so that was a huge reversal,” he added. “He hasn't been saying, ‘Inflation is great, it's at our target, don't worry about inflation.’ He hasn't been saying that, so a little bit of a pickup in inflation I don't think will have the same effect.”

Day said he believes a September rate cut is now fully priced in.

“It's already in the market,” he said. “If they cut a quarter of a percent in September but [Powell] doesn't make any statements one way or the other that are particularly dramatic, I think this is already in the market. A little bit of a pickup in CPI, a little bit of a downturn in consumer sentiment, I don't think it's going to have much of an impact.”

For next week, Day expects gold prices to continue grinding sideways. “I suspect gold will trade in its recent range, and after the rally in the last two weeks, gold is likely to fall back in the next week or so,” he warned.

Eugenia Mykuliak, founder and executive director of B2PRIME Group, told Kitco News that the new gold tariffs are only the latest factor supporting gold prices heading into the fall.

"First of all, tariffs inject uncertainty and push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold,” she said. “With US inflation increasing and job growth slowing, recession risks have risen even higher, which also supports gold. Markets now heavily price a Fed rate cut in September, a backdrop that typically lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.”

“Moreover, this week the US delivered a direct jolt to bullion: Customs and Border Protection reclassified 1-kg (and 100-oz) gold bars so they incur tariffs, a move that particularly hits Switzerland, the world’s refining hub,” Mykuliak noted. “Combined with Washington’s 39% tariff on Swiss imports, this reclassification threatens trade flows. Futures spiked to a record ~$3,534/oz on the headlines; spot prices remain elevated, reaching their ATH.”

“For context on flows, Switzerland’s shipments to the US are volatile (~64t in Dec 2024; ~193t in Jan 2025), so it’s cleaner to cite the FT’s annual value than a ‘60t/month’ average,” she added.

“UP, but decent trade below 34730 (+2 tics per/hour starting at 5:00am) will warn of decent pressure,” said Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics. “In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $2,326.2. These are OFF HOLD. On a Medium time frame: The break above 31482 warned of strength for days—we rallied $385.9. The trade above 32214 projects this upward $100 (+)—we rallied $312.7. The above are OFF HOLD.”

“On a Lower time frame: The trade above 33248 projected this upward $50 (+)—we attained $209.3,” he said. “The trade above 33455 projected this up $100 (+)—we have attained $188.6. The break above 33363 warned of strength—we have seen $197.8. The above are OFF HOLD.”

And Kitco senior analyst Jim Wyckoff expects gold prices to climb further next week. “Steady-higher as charts are bullish and bulls gained momentum this week.”

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