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2024 Recession Indicator to Watch

Author, CMT, and Editor @ The Daily Gold
December 22, 2023

The signal is a steepening yield curve driven by a decline in the 2-year yield. This has preceded or coincided with nearly all recent market declines and recessions.

There are a few examples of the 2-year yield declining but then making a lower high amid an over-bullish stock market. The market then declines considerably after the lower high.

The Daily Gold


Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT is a Chartered Market Technician and member of the Market Technicians Association. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premiuma publication which emphasizes market timing and stock selection, as well as TheDailyGold Global, an add-on service for subscribers which covers global capital markets. He is also the author of the 2015 book, The Coming Renewal of Gold’s Secular Bull Market which is available for free. was recently named one of the top 50 Investment Blogs by DailyReckoning and WalletHub.

Due primarily to the California Gold Rush, San Francisco’s population exploded from 1,000 to 100,000 in only two years.
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