Clear And Present Danger!

September 25, 2016

The cycle since 2009 has been different from other market cycles throughout history in only one significant manner. To wit: it is the Global Central Banks that have intentionally pushed interest rates to zero and below. This encouraged investors to speculate in the equity markets, which have now become 'dangerously overvalued, overbought,' as well as 'over bullish' extremes according to all measures. In my opinion, this has "deferred" and not eliminated the disruptive unwinding of this "speculative" episode.

They have encouraged a "historic expansion" of public and private debt burdens with equity market overvaluations that rivals only those of the 1929 and 2000 extremes on reliable valuation measures. These brazen experimental policies, of Central Banks, have amplified the sensitivity of the global financial markets to "economic disruptions" and "distortions of value" in relation to investor risk aversion.

It is very clear that a zero interest rate policy has encouraged yield-seeking speculation by investors. As I have previously discussed, in many of my past articles, I detailed that monetary easing "in and of itself" does not "support" the financial markets. 'Easy money' merely stimulates speculation while investors are already inclined to embrace even more risk. The actions of the FED’s aggressive and persistent 'easing' will fail to prevent this "market collapse".

Any financial professional who has any understanding of how securities are priced, should know that elevating the price that investors pay for financial securities does not increase "aggregate wealth". A financial security (stocks) are nothing but a claim to some future set of cash flows. The actual "wealth" is embroiled in those future cash flows and the value-added production that generates them. Every security that is issued MUST be held by someone until that security is retired. Therefore, elevating the current price which investors pay for a given set of future cash flows simply brings forward investment returns that would have otherwise been earned later on. The FED is leaving "poorly-compensated" risk, on the table, for the future!

The total debt of the United States has reached gigantic proportions well beyond 2008: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/will-investments-hold-next-financial-crisis-will-far-worse-200809/

The crisis ended precisely in the second week of March of 2009, when the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) responded to Congressional pressure and changed rule FAS157 - so as to remove the requirement for banks and other financial institutions to mark their assets to market value. The mere stroke of a pen has eliminated any chance of widespread defaults by making balance sheets look financially stronger. The new balance sheets may be great in the short-term, but ultimately have become weapons of "mass destruction".


The Race To Debase Continues

As of September 2nd, 2016, the BLSBS "disappoints" with a print of just 151,000 "jobs". This will eliminate the possibility of a FED FUNDS increase, however, do not be surprised if some FED officials emerge to tell you otherwise, as we are already experiencing some counter-intuitive moves within several of the "markets".

The true unemployment rate is ACTUALLY U-6! Consequently, the U-6 rate more accurately reflects a natural, non-technical understanding of what it means to be unemployed. Including discouraged workers, underemployed workers and other people who exist on the margins of the labor market, the U-6 rate provides a broad spectrum of the "underutilization" of labor within the country. In this sense, the U-6 rate is the TRUE unemployment rate which is close to 10%.

U-6 Unemployment Rate

Concluding Thoughts

To be sure this incredible bull market in stocks which we have embraced since 2009 is quickly nearing its end. The FED's mass easy money policies, stock buyback programs, accounting rule changes have simply masked/covered up most of the financial mess people, business and global economies are in.

Eventually all these tactics to cover-up and kick the financial-can down the road will start to fail. Once they start failing, things will get really ugly fast for the entire economy – and for those not knowing how to avoid and profit from market weakness.


Courtesy of www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic

Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.

His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He is a regular speaker on HoweStreet.com, and the FinancialSurvivorNetwork radio shows. Chris was also featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and contributes articles to several financial hubs like MoneyShow.com.

 

10 karat gold is 41.7% pure gold.