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Elliott Wave Counts For Gold Price, SP500 And GDX

November 1, 2016

Gold

Short-Term Update

After dropping to a low of 1271.50 in yesterday’s day session, gold was nicely higher in the overnight session reaching 1286.70, at the time that this post was being written.  Yippeee!!!

On a more serious note, the case for the end of wave -ii- being complete at the 1243.00 low is starting to look stronger, although we do not have clean impulsive sequence from the 1243.00 low to the current high of 1286.00.

We do see a series of impulsive waves, like nested waves, which could be a very bullish signal.

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave -ii- is complete at the 1243.00 low, and we suspect it will come shortly with a big up day. We do, however, have lower retracement levels, so we will see how this market decides to move this week. Our retracement levels for wave -ii- are:

50% = 1211.30;

61.8% = 1172.00.

Upon completion of wave -ii- we should expect a  very sharp rally in wave -iii- that will finally see gold break above our major down trend line. We could still see a little more weakness, but we expect that most or all of wave -ii- is likely complete at the 1243.00 low.

Longer-Term Update

The stage is now set for the next leg up in a powerful wave -iii- rally, once all of wave -ii- is complete. Once we are sure that wave -ii- is complete we will provide our first projections for the end of wave -iii-.  

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

S&P500 

Short-Term Update

The S&P was quiet in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session that S&P Futures are up about 6 points, at the time that this Post is being written.  

We are working on the idea that a major top in the S&P occurred at the failure high of 2186.96, and that we have already completed wave .i. of a new bear market at the 2119.12 low.

As you can see on the attached 120 Min S&P chart, we believe that all of wave .ii. ended at the 2179.99 and that we are now dropping in the early stages of wave .iii. We do note that there is a possibility that either wave *ii* or wave .ii. may still be underway and are becoming very complex with multi 3 wave patterns in both directions. We have shown that as red labels on the 120 Min S&P Chart. We need a break and close below the wave .i. low of 2119.12 to confirm our current count.

Our current count for the new bear market is:  

.i. = 2119.12;

.ii.:

*a* = 2163.30

*b* triangle = 2139.57

*c* = 2179.99, if complete to complete all of wave .ii..

.iii.:

*i* = 2141.55;

*ii* = 2175.30, if complete;

*iii* drop is next, once wave *ii* ends.

Projections for the end of wave .iii. are:

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 2070.22;

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 2020.63. 

Long-Term Update

Note: We suspect that a break and close below the 2119.00 area will see this market plunge!                                                                                                

A major top in the S&P may now be at hand, at the 2186.96 high.

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2170 calls as stops!

GDX:

Short-Term Update

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s day session, and in the overnight market, as we continue to wait for a big up day in gold to get this market moving higher in wave 3. 

We are now waiting for confirmation that all of wave 2 is complete!

As you can see on the Daily GDX Chart we now believe that we have completed a 5 wave impulsive sequence from the 12.40 low to the current high of 31.79.

This will have completed wave 1 at the 31.79 high and we are now falling in an almost complete wave 2. Our current count for wave 2 is as follows;

a = 25.17;

b = 28.56;

c = 22.50, if complete, with the following retracement levels:

50% = 22.10;

61.88 % = 19.81.

Upon completion of wave 2 we expect a very sharp rally in wave 3, as the next big event in this market.

Long-Term Update

We now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that all or most of wave 2 maybe be complete at the 22.59 low.

Once wave 2 ends we expect a very sharp rally in wave 3, as the next big event in the market!

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

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Free Trades Offer For Gold-Eagle Readers:  Send me an email to [email protected] and I’ll send you my next couple short term ewave trades for free! !

Email: [email protected]

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