A Few Facts About Gold That Nay-Sayers Conveniently Ignore

April 29, 2016

We continue to see articles by so called “experts” trashing Gold and Silver as investments. Gold is everything from a “Pet Rock” to a “Dumb Investment” or “Barbarous Relic.”

Do these people even bother doing research? Or are they just stock shills? 

First and foremost, you cannot compare Gold’s performance relative to stocks anywhere before 1967. 

Why?

Because Gold was pegged to currencies up until that point. Any comparison of Gold’s performance relative to other asset classes prior to 1967 is completely misleading because Gold’s performance was limited by currency pegging.

However, once began to be de-pegged in 1967, the story changes.

As Bill King notes, Gold’s performance has absolutely DEMOLISHED that of stocks post 1967. The below chart normalizes both asset classes.

As you can see, even with Gold having lost nearly 40% of its value since 2011, and stocks soaring to all-time highs over 2100 on the S&P 500, the comparison isn’t even close.

This outperformance has continued recently despite the Fed juicing the market at every turn.

Between the year 2000 and today, stocks have been in two of the biggest stock bubbles in history. Over this time period the Fed has done almost nothing but prop stocks up by printing money or maintaining interest rates far below where they should be.

And yet, Gold has once again CRUSHED stocks’ performance. Again, the comparison isn’t even close (and that includes Gold’s terrible performance from 2011 onwards).

Despite these two facts, you rarely if ever see pro-Gold articles appear in the media.

It’s odd… for an asset class that less than 1% of investors actually own, “reporters” and “analysts” sure spend an awful lot of trashing it. How come they don’t spend an equal amount of time trashing uranium or other under-owned asset? Why spend so much time focusing on an asset that so few people even own?

Probably because:

1)    Gold doesn’t generate any revenue for financial institutions (brokers, investment managers, etc.)

2)    Gold doesn’t benefit the banks, as you can store it if your own safe.

3)    Gold and its performance run counter to the view that you can generate wealth via money printing.

At the end of the day, buying Gold represents pulling your money from the financial system… which is the last thing the Fed wants anyone to do.

Meanwhile, as Central Banks turn up the printing presses again, Gold is once again beginning to show signs of life, turning upwards against all major currencies.

We believe the next leg up is about to begin for Gold. Those who remember from the last Gold bull market in the ‘70s, it was the second leg of Gold’s bull market that saw the most gains.

From 1970 to 1974, Gold rose 550%. It then took two-year breather before beginning its second, much larger leg up. During that second leg, it rose over 900% in value.

If Gold were to stage a similar move now, it would rise to over $10,000 per ounce.

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Graham Summers is Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, an independent investment research firm based in the Washington DC-metro area with clients in 56 countries around the world.

Graham’s clients include over 20,000 retail investors as well as strategists at some of the largest financial institutions in the world (Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Royal Bank of Scotland, UBS, and Raymond James to name a few). His views on business and investing has been featured in RollingStone magazine, The New York Post, CNN Money, Crain’s New York Business, the National Review, Thomson Reuters, the Glenn Beck Show and more.

U.S. ranks third in world gold production with 240 tons per year

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