Gold Cycle Update Exclusive

Chief Analyst & Editor @ Goldwavetrader
September 13, 2021

gold bricksGold's Short-Term View

For the very short-term, the downward phase of the 10 and 20-day cycles is deemed to be back in force with the recent action. In terms of time, the 10-day wave is 7 trading days along, with the larger 20-day component now 23 days along - with the overall combination of these waves at or into bottoming territory.

The chart below again shows the smaller 10-day wave:

In terms of price, it is too early to confirm an upside ‘reversal point’ for these 10 and 20-day cycles, though one should ideally materialize in the coming days - with the latest numbers always posted in our Gold Wave Trader report.

Support to the current correction phase looks to be at or into the 1738-1776 region, which encompasses the 38-61% retracement of the prior swing up, but with a key focus on the 1757-1776 level inside this range. In terms of time, the next key date range of focus is the September 15-16 reversal date area, which - if lower lows are seen into the same - may be primed to bottom the smaller swing down.

In terms of patterns, the overall assumption is that the current correction phase of the 10 and 20-day cycles will end up as a countertrend affair - which, ideally, means that the metal will try to remain above the 1756.00 figure (December, 2021 contract) on a daily close. Once the 10 and 20-day cycles do bottom out, a minimum rally back to the 10-day moving average or higher should be expected to materialize.

Gold's 3-6 Week Outlook

Stepping back, with the daily close back above the 1829.40 figure (seen on 9/3/21), the same was our best confirmation of a 'momentum reversal' to the upside with the larger 72-day wave, which is shown again on the chart below:

With the above said and noted, the ideal path going forward would be for Gold to see another try at our upper 72-day cycle band. From there, the probabilities will favor another peak to form, giving way to a sharp decline into what looks to be the late-October timeframe, plus or minus. That range is where this 72-day cycle is next projected to trough. It is also where a low for the larger 154-day component is due, with this particular wave shown again on the chart below:

For the mid-term picture, from whatever low that does form with the 72 and 154-day waves into late-October (but with a wide plus or minus variance in either direction), Gold should see a nice rally playing out in the months to follow. In terms of price, that rally should be somewhere in the range of 20% or more off of whatever bottom that is seen with the 72 and 154-day cycles, which is the statistical average rally for the larger 154-day component.

All said, the short-term path is seen as bottoming, but with the larger 72 and 154-day waves viewed as pointing south into late-October or later, where the next bottom of significance should materialize. From there, a sharp rally should play out in the months to follow, a move which may or may not end up as countertrend, against the June peak from this year. Stay tuned. 

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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Jim Curry became involved in the markets as an investor in 1988. In the early 1990's he stumbled upon a book/methodology that would change the way he looked at the markets forever. That book was J.M. Hurst's the Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. Hurst's concepts seemed to make perfect sense to Jim, and he has spent the years since coming up with his own cycle/technical analysis methodology.

In 1998 Jim put his cyclic methods to the test by entering the Etrade national options-trading competition, twice (his only two entries ever into the competition). In the first contest he finished in the top 10 out of over 150,000 entrants; in the second entry into the same contest, he just narrowly missed finishing in first place - over quadrupling a $100,000 account in the contest's short time span.

What you are seeing when you view my market reports is a collection of over 30-years of experience in both numeric analysis and spectral methods - and in actually trading the methodology for myself and for the subscribers of my Gold Wave Trader (which covers Gold) and Market Turns (covering U.S. stocks) reports.

You can visit his websites at: http://goldwavetrader.com/ and http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

One cubic foot of gold weighs more than half a ton (1,306 pounds).

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