Gold Forecast: Fed Pause Lifts Gold Above $2000, Bullish Breakout?

Technical Analysis Expert & Editor @
November 3, 2023

gold forecast

Gold Miners (GDX) may be forming a head and shoulder bottom.

The FOMC left rates unchanged - the stock market is rebounding.  

If the Fed is done hiking, gold may be heading to a November breakout.

Gold Allocation

Over the last several years, 71% of financial advisors had less than a1% exposure to gold.

I think most advisors recommend between 5% and 10%, correct me if I’m wrong - only 2% are balanced that way.


Stock vs. Bonds

The traditional 60/40 portfolio broken down amongst age groups is far from what I expected. According to Schwab, Boomers hold the least amount of bonds with just a 31% weighting. To my surprise, Millennials hold the most. With bond prices in a 3-year bear market and fixed income yielding 5%, I wonder when investors will panic and reallocate.


Precious Metals Commentary

  • I see a potential head and shoulder bottom in miners that could trigger an explosive rally.
  • A November breakout is a significant possibility.  

GOLD- Gold continues to consolidate just below $2000. A daily close above $2040 in the first half of November would signal a breakout and potential attack on $2090. To the downside, closing below $1960 would sponsor a retest of the October breakout.

SILVER- Silver is consolidating below the 200-day MA. A daily close above $24.00 would signal a breakout. Downside support at $22.00.

PLATINUM- Prices are above the trendline and must close above $950 to promote an attack on $1000. On the downside, platinum must hold $900 to stay constructive.

GDX- Miners are setting up a near repeat of last year's head and shoulder bottom. Note that in 2022, the final low came in the first week of November, followed by an explosive breakout. A close above $30.00 in the coming days would confirm a breakout.

GDXJ- Juniors need progressive closes above the trendline to confirm a breakout.

SILJ- Silver juniors must break decisively above the trendline to support a breakout.

S&P 500- Stocks gapped higher over speculation the Fed is done hiking. Closing below today's 4237 gap would signal a bearish reversal. If this is more than a bounce, I'd need to see progressive closes above the October 4393 high. Otherwise, I think there are too many headwinds for a sustained advance.

BTCUSD- Bitcoin filled the breakdown gap from last year near $36,000. What happens next is crucial. A continued advance above $40,000 would legitimize the recent breakout. Whereas a reversal lower that closes below $31,000 would establish a bull trap and renewed decline.


The October low washout sentiment and gold could reach new highs by year-end. I think we’ll know by mid-November if metals and miners are breaking out.

Click here à to read our article on $10,000 gold and $300 silver.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For regular updates, please visit


AG Thorson is a registered CMT through the MTA and an recognized expert in technical analysis of the precious metals markets. He is also the Editor of where members receive daily updates and regularly scheduled reports 3-days a week. He prides himself on making his analysis easy to understand through the use of adaptive and creative charting methods. You can reach AG at [email protected].

In 1934 President Franklin Delano Roosevelt devalued the dollar by raising the price of gold to $35 per ounce.
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