Gold Forecast: Gold Cycles Higher into Spring of 2024

Chief Analyst & Editor @ Goldwavetrader
November 24, 2023

gold coinsAs mentioned in my last article in mid-October, Gold bottomed out into our 'kill zone' turn date, with the metal rallying all the way up to a recent high of 2019.70 (December, 2023 contract). A mid-term bottom for Gold is deemed to have formed at the 1823.50 figure - with the metal favored to be pushing higher overall into the Spring of 2024.

Gold's Near-Term Picture

For the short-term view for Gold, the 20 and 34-day cycles ideally bottomed out at the 1935.60 swing low, seen on November 13th. The chart below shows the smaller of these waves, the 20-day cycle:

With the above, Gold has seen a consolidation to the downside in recent days, a move which is expected to end up as countertrend. If correct, additional strength with the upward phase of the 20 and 34-day waves is favored into early-December or beyond. In terms of price, a push back above the 2019.70 swing top would be ideal into that timeframe.

Going further, I should add that any push above the 2019.70 swing high in the coming days/weeks - if seen - would also favor a short-term breakout to the upside. Though we don't know how far a breakout could carry, it is reasonable to expect a rally of 6% or more off the 34-day low, which is a low-end rally with this wave - when coming off the pattern of a 'higher-low'.

With the above said and noted, taking out the 2019.70 swing top could lead to a test of the 2050's or better, before peaking our larger 72-day cycle, shown below:

Stepping back then, from whatever peak that forms with our 72-day wave into December, another correction with this cycle would be expected to play out into the late-December to early-January, 2024 timeframe. In terms of patterns, that decline would be expected to end up as a countertrend affair, due to the position of our next larger wave, the 310-day component:

Gold's Mid-Term View

For the mid-term picture, the early-October trough is also favored to have bottomed our larger 310-day wave. If this is correct, a statistical analysis of this particular cycle suggests the potential for an eventual move up to the 2200's or better for Gold, ideally playing out into the late-Spring, 2024 timeframe.

With the configuration of this 310-day cycle, we would expect any correction with the smaller 72-day wave to end up as countertrend, before continuing with the bigger uptrend into next Spring. On or after that, we will need to be on the lookout for the next mid-term peak forming with our 310-day component, as what follows should be a bigger percentage correction into (tentatively) the Spring of 2025.

Note: I recently did an interview with the Naturalresourcestocks.net YouTube channel, which covers some of the aforementioned analysis of the 72 and 310-day cycles. For those interested in watching this interview (about 15 minutes), you go directly to the viewing link at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzgmV5uKYv0&t=9s

The Bottom Line

The overall bottom line with the above is that Gold formed a mid-term bottom back in early-October, and with that is headed higher into the Spring of 2024. In terms of price, there is the potential for that rally to reach up to the 2200's or better - though with the normal corrections along the way. More precise details on the smaller-degree declines are noted in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader report.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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Jim Curry became involved in the markets as an investor in 1988. In the early 1990's he stumbled upon a book/methodology that would change the way he looked at the markets forever. That book was J.M. Hurst's the Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. Hurst's concepts seemed to make perfect sense to Jim, and he has spent the years since coming up with his own cycle/technical analysis methodology.

In 1998 Jim put his cyclic methods to the test by entering the Etrade national options-trading competition, twice (his only two entries ever into the competition). In the first contest he finished in the top 10 out of over 150,000 entrants; in the second entry into the same contest, he just narrowly missed finishing in first place - over quadrupling a $100,000 account in the contest's short time span.

What you are seeing when you view my market reports is a collection of over 30-years of experience in both numeric analysis and spectral methods - and in actually trading the methodology for myself and for the subscribers of my Gold Wave Trader (which covers Gold) and Market Turns (covering U.S. stocks) reports.

You can visit his websites at: http://goldwavetrader.com/ and http://cyclewave.homestead.com/


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