Gold Forecast: Gold & U.S. Stocks Higher (Overall) into Spring

Since my last article for Gold-Eagle, both the Gold market - and U.S. stocks - have seen correction phases, though with each of these having been expected to end up as countertrend moves - against the larger upward phase. We will take a look at each of markets this weekend, first with a quick look at Gold.

Gold's 10-Day Cycle

For the very short-term, we can take a look at our smallest-tracked wave in the Gold market, which is the 10-day cycle, and shown below:

With that, the next swing peak should come from this 10-day cycle in Gold, which is now some 7 trading days along - and is in the back-end of its normal topping range. Having said that, it is still too early to confirm a new downside 'reversal point' for this wave, though one should ideally materialize soon - and is always posted in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader report.

In terms of price, the 10-day moving average should provide an ideal minimum magnet to the coming correction phase of our 10-day cycle, which is next projected to trough around the wide range of December 4-9.

Gold's 72-Day Cycle

Above the 10-day wave, the most dominant cycle for Gold is the bigger 72-day wave, and is shown again on the chart below:

As mentioned in my October 19th article, this 72-day cycle was looking for its peak - with that peak later confirmed to be the 10/25/25 swing top in Gold. From there, a sharp decline of some 11.4% was seen, taking the metal into a late-October trough.

In terms of time, the bottom for our 72-day cycle was originally projected for the late- November window, plus or minus, with that decline having been favored to end up as countertrend - against the bigger bull phase. With the overall action, the price trough for this cycle may well have been made at the 3937 swing low (February, 2026 contract).

Having said the above, the low for our 72-day wave has yet to actually be confirmed, and with that there is the potential for another quick decline in the next week or two, coming from the aforementioned 10-day cycle.

Stepping back further, the next upward phase of the 72-day cycle is expected to see Gold rallying some 13-14% or more, which would take the metal back to new all-time highs into early next year. On or around February of 2026, the next larger-degree peak should eventually form with the metal, coming from the bigger four-year wave. More on this four-year cycle in a future article.

U.S. Stock Market Update

From the comments made in past months, my analysis had confirmed a key low having formed all the way back in April of this year, with that low coming from the 360-day cycle in U.S. stocks, as well as the smaller 180-day component. That bottom was forecast in advance, and was projected to form into that April, 2026 window. 

Here again is our 360-day cycle on the SPX (i.e., S&P 500 index):

From my 10/19/25 article: "the next larger-degree peak in U.S. stocks should come from this 360-day time cycle. In terms of price, we have since upgraded our targets for the SPX, with the potential to reach up to the 7300-7500 region, before topping the market for what is anticipated to be a bigger percentage (17-30%) correction into the Autumn of next year, plus or minus."

As mentioned above, this bigger 360-day wave in U.S. stocks is pushing higher into the Spring of 2026, where the next larger-degree peak is set to materialize. In terms of price, the 7300-7500 SPX CASH region seems to be the ideal upside magnet, which could also offer up a key resistance level to the bigger upward phase.

For the bigger picture, from whatever high that does form with our 360-day wave in the coming months, the downside 'risk' will be to a correction of some 17-30% or more into later next year, where this component is next projected to trough. In terms of patterns, that decline should be expected to end up as countertrend, against the April, 2025 low of 4835.04 SPX CASH - before turning sharply higher into the year 2027.

U.S. Stocks, Short-Term

From my 10/19/25 article: "for the near-term view, several corrections should play out in-between now and when our 360-day wave tops, with the most current coming from the combination of our 45-day time cycle, as well as the seasonal patterns. That decline is favored to end up as an eventual countertrend affair, before turning back to higher highs on the next swing up.

As mentioned above, back in mid-October we were in a correction with a smaller 45-day cycle in U.S. stocks, which was expected to end up as countertrend - due to the position of the larger 360-day wave. That assessment was correct, with the SPX making a push back to new all-time highs on the next swing up, before forming yet another peak-and-decline phase into late-November.

For the very short-term, however, the most dominant cycle in U.S. stocks is the 10-day wave, which is shown on the chart below:

In terms of time, this 10-day wave in U.S. stocks is 4 trading days along - and with that is into its early-end topping range. In terms of price, our downside 'reversal point' for this cycle is set at the 6735.27 SPX CASH figure - a number which could/should continue to move up in the near-term, depending on the action.

Stepping back slightly, once this 10-day wave does top, a drop back to the 9-day moving average would be a normal-enough expectation, with its next trough projected for the December 7-10 window. In terms of patterns, that decline seems favored to end up as a countertrend affair, holding above the 6521.92 prior bottom.

'Reversal Points' are Key

If we look at the short-term upside/downside price reversals with our 10-day wave from late-October to late-November, back on October 30th a downside reversal of 6850.00 SPX CASH was triggered, which - once broken below - gave way to an additional 219 point decline on the SPX, taking the index all the way down to a low of 6631.44.

From there, this 10-day wave confirmed a low, with the reversal back above the 6743.84 SPX CASH figure, coming on November 10th. This action was followed by an additional rally of some 126 SPX points into the 6869.91 swing top, seen on November 12th. From there, this 10-day wave confirmed a peak with the November 14th close of 6734.11.

Going further, from the November 14th (downside) flip with the 10-day cycle, the SPX dropped another 213 points into the November 21st low of 6521.92, before taking out its following upside reversal point of 6663.12, doing so on Monday of last week. Since then, the index has seen another 183 points of additional strength, with this upside reversal still in force at Friday's close - and with that the potential for further rally.

With the above said and noted, just with the short-term reversals with the 10-day wave, the SPX would have gained some 350 points from late-October to late-November. This is compared to the buy-and-hold on the SPX over the same window, with the index itself gaining only 27 points over that timeframe.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line for U.S. stocks is that a smaller-degree peak is forming, coming from our 10-day wave, though with the upward phase of the larger 360-day cycle favored to hold up well into the Spring of next year. On or after that point, the next mid-term peak is expected to form, giving way to a larger-degree decline into later next year.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

Market Turns Advisory
http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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