Gold SWOT: Global Central Banks Bought a Net 20 Tons of Gold in May

Strengths

• The best-performing precious metal for the past week was palladium, up 12.22%, possibly boosted by news that Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. will close the Lac des Iles palladium mine in Ontario due to falling prices over the past three years.
• Bloomberg suggests keeping an eye on silver, as steady inflows into silver-backed ETFs indicate growing investor confidence in further gains this half. ETF holdings are now at their highest since mid-2022, following eight consecutive weeks of inflows, the longest streak in nearly five years.
• According to Scotia, Lundin Gold reported second-quarter gold production of 139.4K ounces, 20% above their estimate of 115.9K ounces. The beat was driven by higher processed grades, and the company also achieved a throughput rate of 5,064 tons per day, the highest in Fruta del Norte’s history, thanks to its recently completed Plant Expansion Project.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the past week was gold, though it still rose 0.82%. According to Royal Bank of Canada, Northern Star’s fiscal year 2026 production expectations have been declining since a fiscal year 2025 downgrade in the third quarter. The newly released fiscal year 2026 guidance of 1,700–1,850 thousand ounces is slightly below Royal Bank of Canada’s midpoint estimate of 1,802 thousand ounces. However, the all-in sustaining cost of 2,300–2,500 Australian dollars per ounce missed expectations. Fourth-quarter gold sales were also soft at 444 thousand ounces, 2% below estimates.
• Bellevue Gold reported production of 38.9 thousand ounces, a slight miss compared to second-quarter guidance of 40–43 thousand ounces. Canaccord attributes the shortfall to a brief delay in accessing a key stope at Deacon, as well as unplanned maintenance early in the quarter.
• According to Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Gold's streaming segment sales totaled 40.6 gold equivalent ounces, 14% below their estimate. Inventories declined to 16 thousand gold equivalent ounces, down from 23 thousand in the first quarter, suggesting that low production was partly offset by the sale of ounces carried over from previous periods. Performance was particularly weak across Royal Gold’s gold streams.

Opportunities

• Gold momentum has slipped into neutral, with support holding near $3,300 and resistance capped below $3,400. Since April, gains have been limited by the S&P 500 rally, after gold initially rose on early-year market fears. Now coiling in a classic consolidation, any catalyst could break it out. Either investors believe macro risks are contained—or they're underestimating the chance of renewed volatility amid slowdown fears and possible rate cuts.

• The World Gold Council reports that global central banks bought a net 20 tons of gold in May, slightly below the 12-month average of 27 tons. Gold remains a key focus, with 95% of central bankers expecting official reserves to grow, up from 81% last year. A record 43% also plan to increase their own gold holdings in the next 12 months.
• Aura Minerals Inc. plans to raise about $210 million through a U.S. listing to expand its investor base. The gold and copper miner, already traded in Canada and Brazil, will offer 8.1 million shares. Pricing is set for July 15, per a recent SEC filing seen by Bloomberg.

Threats

• According to RBC, royalty companies reporting gold-equivalent production figures will face larger guidance headwinds as gold prices have materially outperformed other commodities year-to-date. They forecast OR Royalties could track at or slightly below the low end of production guidance, while Triple Flag and Sandstorm remain within the lower end of their guidance ranges.

• OR Royalties reported Q2 2025 gold-equivalent ounces (GEO) results slightly below BMO’s expectations, leading BMO to lower its quarterly estimates. The company also highlighted repayments on its revolving credit facility during and after the quarter. OR Royalties remains an attractive consolidation target.
• Barrick reports that Malian government helicopters arrived unannounced at its Loulo-Gounkoto complex on Thursday and took over 1 ton of gold. The gold was potentially for sale by the provisional administrator, though Barrick says the situation is “evolving,” according to Bloomberg.

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