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Has The EURO Topped?

August 31, 2017

At least in the short term anyway? Remember, that based on my USD update from yesterday, I am still looking for a 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in the USD. The Dollar has rallied hard off yesterday’s low and as you would expect, the EURO is showing signs of topping here.

I have taken a trade in shorting the EURO with the EUO ETF but have not yet made this a portfolio trade as it is risky here but here are some charts on both the EURO ($XEU) and EUO.

My first three charts are on the EURO ($XEU). The first is close up showing what looks like an early top on day 8. The second is a one year daily and the third, an 11 Year weekly showing that it is struggling at the 200wma. My last chart is a USD 1+ year weekly showing the strong two day bounce that recaptured the 200wma so we may well be witnessing the long awaited Intermediate Low (ICL) I have been looking for.

My last two charts are on the EUO ETF that shorts the EURO.

Talk about catching a falling knife… Wish me luck.

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Surf City is a pseudonym for a 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California. He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55. In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market analysis. Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.” Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.