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Inverse US Dollar and Stocks; Who’s Telling Lies?

Founder & Editor @ NFTRH.com
March 26, 2024

The inverse of the US dollar has faded US and global stock markets.

The correlation between inverse US dollar and stock markets is not always in place, but it has been in place much more often than not in recent years. However, beginning in February inverse USD has declined while US (SPX) and global, ex-US (ACWX) have robotically kept climbing.

An interpretation, assuming the correlation is not broken in a long-term way, is that either stocks are positively diverging inverse USD (implying a coming decline in USD) or inverse USD is negatively diverging stocks (implying a coming decline in stocks).

Of course, another interpretation is that the correlation ended and market signals have mutated. I see the potential for that second scenario in another recent correlation, USD and bond yields, which will occupy another post.

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Gary Tanashian is founder and editor of the popular Notes from the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH). Gary successfully owned and operated a progressive medical component manufacturing company for 21 years, keeping the company’s fundamentals in alignment with global economic realities through various economic cycles. The natural progression from this experience is an understanding of and appreciation for global macro-economics as it relates to individual markets and sectors.


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