Plethora of Potential Crisis Triggers

November 19, 2019

The US-based bond market is in tragic condition. All the bonds in US financial markets reek of rigged prices and inflated values. It is not a single bond sector, but rather all bond sectors that are in deep trouble, against a background of multi-year economic recession. The USTreasury Bonds, given the over $1.0 trillion in supply and widespread absence of buyers, deserves a 10% yield. The stolen missing $21 trillion amplifies the vacant value, from a grand crime scene. It is a wonder that investigator Professor Skidmore of Michigan State Univ has not been charged with financial terrorism. The USTBond market is teetering, kept afloat by overnight enormous slugs of fake money, which in early November was over $250 billion on a daily basis. If it was put onto the USFed balance sheet, on an increasingly frequent basis, then it is called QE. Better get real, and call it what it actually is – INFINITE Q.E. FOREVER. The Gold price is preparing the next launch platform.

The US corporate bond market is an avalanche waiting to happen, with potentially hundreds of $billions in bonds soon to be marked down as junk. They are on the verge of debt downgrades from their current fragile BBB rating. The junk bonds are becoming junkier by the month. However, the primary attention should be focused upon the Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLO). They are repackaged financial cow droppings and chicken dung, fashioned into tranches of wretched quality, but called AAA or something close. The 2006-2008 era saw a cousin fecal variety called CDO, even CDO squared instruments, all of which pursued and found their true zero value during the crisis. What exactly is the value of a CDO squared if the base has zero value? The answer is a faster heat seeking value that reaches zero in much less time.

The bond market crisis is finally in its middle stage, impossible to conceal from the overnight and POMO actions by the USFed. When an overnight credit extension for a desperately illiquid big bank morphs into an outright purchase, then placed on the USFed balance sheet, the activity qualifies at a Return to QE. Thus we observe the permanent open market operations recently evident. Given the high volumes, it qualifies at Infinite QE. Given the permanent policy announced by Chairman Powell last spring, it qualifies as Infinite QE Forever. The Gold market is watching. The Gold market is sniffing out the emerging crisis. The Gold market knows full well that a Systemic Lehman crisis is upon us. All the errors from the past decade have been repeated. The mortgage bonds were the subprime bond back before 2008. Today the USTreasury Bond is the global subprime bond, standing atop the Modern Monetary Theory pillars built from the Fascist Business Model. The bond market is like a gigantic building on fire, whose lapping flames are visible from 3 miles (5 kilometers) away, but which have summoned no fire trucks. Worse, the burning building is deemed normal and strong and healthy by the corrupted authorities. The monetary fire authorities are encouraging the masses to enter the burning building for safe haven. They will awaken, and migrate quickly to the Gold true sanctuary.

RISK OF NEGATIVE RATES

The whipping winds will carry the flaming matter to other financial markets when the bond yields begin to move below 1.0% and talk arrives of eventual negative rates. The reality of risk is far more powerful that the propaganda band boxes that spew out Modern Monetary Theory nonsense, verbal rubbish, and human droppings. Negative interest rate and bond yield cannot happen. The result will be massive rejection (dumping) of USTreasury bonds held in banking reserves, discharged in favor of gold bullion. Furthermore, the Indirect Exchange in funding large-scale Eastern Belt & Road projects already has created an environment of disfavor, discharge, and revolt. Negative rates would cause a third rail type of electrical repulsion.

Trump could crash the system by simply allowing the USTreasury Bond yields to diminish significantly, with the prospect of actual touching the negative pole. In response, watch the central bank rats bail from the ship en masse. In the last two months, warnings have come that rates cannot go negative. When the pole is approached, it starts the waterfall exodus from USTBond arena. In fact, when the short-term or 10-year bond yield approaches a negative rate, the resistance builds exponentially and will never allow an actual contact. Such is the phenomenon because that would mean the USD lantern would be extinguished, the King Dollar would suffer an immediate fatal heart attack, with almost no chance of resurrection. It is unclear whether President Trump will choose to actively use this method to force the Global Financial RESET. The disorder would be magnificent, enough to fill chapters in the annals of financial history. He might wish to overturn the elites in this manner, exploiting their arrogance and hubris, thus fomenting the stage to introduce the Gold Standard. It will arrive first in trade payment, next in sovereign bond guarantees, and finally in currency foundation. The biggest running question is whether the gold backing will be in digital form, thus ensuring integrity without the physical movement via trucks and planes.

Fashioning the future platforms is an arduous task. Everything else has failed, like sanctions, war, coalitions with puppets, financial theft, currency attacks, viruses unleashed, and economic sabotage. The other argument goes like this. Trump does not need to manage the collapse and ignition of the new system. It will evolve on its own, following the EU sovereign debt, following the Eastern initiatives with Gold-Oil-RMB contracts, following the Belt & Road multi-$trillion in projects collectively, following the spurn of the USTBond in massive dumping in favor of Gold. The Wall Street crew must manage a continued bond rally, one which never ends. They cannot encourage a bond exodus from lost principal, like from rising yields. The rally must continue even while bond yields are paltry, puny, and pitifully low. That means they must test the negative electrical pole, with risk of a violent global reaction. They must continue down toward the true zero bound. The slide on a slippery path built upon arrogance and unbridled power.

POTENTIAL POWERFUL TRIGGERS

Speculation and conjecture run ripe in identifying the potential triggers for the greater eruption of the new ongoing financial crisis. It is teeming at the surface, awaiting an explosive chapter. The effect would be a contagion from a powerful ripple in sequence, coupled with a USGovt fiscal crisis since the bond market funds the federal deficit. A new sanctuary will be pursued and sought after, and that sanctuary would be Gold. Consider many potential triggers that would exacerbate the current blossoming bond market crisis into a full stage global financial crisis. The global crisis is as inevitable in its occurrence as its size being five times greater than the Lehman crisis. The true safe haven in Gold will be found. The Gold price will double in value. The Silver price will triple in value. Expect $3000 gold and $50 silver, just for the opening salvo. The new global structure for precious metals has been decided upon, Gold as the monetary metal and Silver as the technology metal. With crisis comes opportunity.

  • The movement of USTreasury Bill & Bond yields toward the zero bound, which will result in extreme reactions
  • Failure of Deutsche Bank or its US subsidiary, either from their over-sized bond and derivative holdings, or from liquidation of their many ETFunds under management, despite the best efforts to discharge the funds.
  • Failure of Credit Suisse, a US registered bank, from its unsuccessful unwind of USD-Gold arbitrage matched against its Swissy-Euro Peg, all of which took the Gold price from $1900/oz down to $1300/oz.
  • Failure of JPMorgan or HSBC, both of which have played with the USD-Gold fire for too long and too deeply, unable to keep the suppression game going.
  • Shale/ Fracking oil sector going bust, with major company failures and associated debt default for the Wall Street bank portfolios
  • Failure of an important bank not in US, UK, Germany. Like for instance imagine a failure of Societe General in France, which is being abused in a support role.
  • Failure of Collateralized Debt in the United States, from any number of sources used as impaired collateral, done in repackaged mislabeled financial manure.
  • Failure of an Emerging Market Nation debt in the hundreds of $billions
  • Eruption of a derivative failure, like from the Petro-Dollar sector, linking the crude oil contract with the major currencies such as USD, Euro, British Pound.
  • Sudden wind change emanating from Saudi Arabia, as the financial scirocco whips from the East amidst new stronger relations with Russia & China.
  • Breakdown of a major US bank from failed excessive usage of leverage in USTreasury Bond structural holdings, all under the blessing and guidance of the New York Fed.
  • Massive USTBond redemptions (revolt) as Indirect Exchange in financing the many large scale projects in the multiple $billions from the Belt & Road Initiative
  • A coordinated attack on the USTBond structure by angry bond holders (dumping), who are disgusted by the corrupt bond market underpinnings and the abusive military privilege
  • Widespread conversion of USTBonds by central banks around the world, as bond yields move closer to zero, selling bonds and buying Gold bullion
  • Major disruptions in the Money Market arena, from very low interest rates.
  • Lawsuits by powerful people spurned by the New York and London gold markets, who have deep pocket connections of a global nature.

Expect to see Gold & Silver prices multiples higher, blessed secretly by the Basel bankers. Refer to the former BIS Chairman Zijlstra plan for central bank revitalization, where they load up on gold bullion secretly, then engineer a 10-fold Gold price increase in order to emerge from their own (buyer of last resort) insolvency. The major central banks all bought impaired bonds, and now find themselves hopeless insolvent and at great risk in the face of bond writedowns. The process has begun in migration from sovereign impaired bonds toward Gold bullion in central bank core assets. It is coming. It is written. It will be done.

PARADE OF CORRECT JACKASS FORECASTS

Correct forecasts are lining up. Most of these listed forecasts have been cited and repeated within the Hat Trick Letter since 2014. They are actually all my pending forecasts. The majority have begun to hit, to become reality. A magnificent crisis has begun, and it will not stop until the USDollar has fully made its transition, followed by the multi-faceted modern version of the Gold Standard. When implemented, it will have numerous features, unlike in the years leading to 1971 when abolished.

Never have so many forecasts kicked into gear at the same time as what are currently taking place. The Global Bond Market crisis is gaining momentum. The fact that so many forecasts are kicking into gear means clearly that the Global Financial RESET is in its middle stages. The Jackass forecasts are coming to the fore, made in the years since 2014:

•           Gold Trade Note is launched

•           Germany flipping East

•           China buying Saudi oil in RMB terms

•           USGovt tossing the Saudis under the bus

•           USFed reverts to Infinite QE Forever

•           USTreasury Bond recognized as global subprime bond

•           Numerous non-USD bank transfer facilities emerge

•           Britain seeks a role in Belt & Road Initiative

•           Iran becomes a vital member of Eurasian Trade Zone

•           US loses control of oil market as OPEC dissolves

•           The Dual Universe comes into form, USD vs RMB

•           Shanghai gradually wrests control of Gold market

•           US bond market unravels as crisis expands

•           Saudi Arabia is targeted by Langley for terror hits

•           United States finds utter isolation.

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Jim Willie

Jim Willie

Jim Willie CB, also known as the “Golden Jackass”, is an insightful and forward-thinking writer and analyst of today's events, the economy and markets. In 2004 he launched the popular website http://www.goldenjackass.com that offers his articles of original “out of the box” thinking as well as content from top analysts and authors. He also has a popular and affordable subscription-based newsletter service, The Hat Trick Letter, which you can learn more about here.  

Jim Willie Background

Jim Willie has experience in three fields of statistical practice during 23 industry years after earning a Statistics PhD at Carnegie Mellon University. The career began at Digital Equipment Corp in Metro Boston, where two positions involved quality control procedures used worldwide and marketing research for the computer industry. An engineering spec was authored, and my group worked through a transition with UNIX. The next post was at Staples HQ in Metro Boston, where work focused on forecasting and sales analysis for their retail business amidst tremendous growth.

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