Stocks are Putting in A Multi-Century Top

May 14, 2011

There is a pattern that just jumps out at us, which we want to present as our new highest probability scenario for the big picture. We now believe that the Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} top did not occur at the January 14th, 2000 top, and did not occur at the October 2007 top. We believe those tops were waves A and C of a massive Megaphone Top pattern in stocks.

What is intriguing about this scenario is that each of the five waves that comprise this Megaphone pattern has three subwaves (key characteristics for Megaphones), and that the fifth and final wave, (E) up ofV up is finishing now. What makes this interesting is it allows prices to either truncate and top now, or rise to the upper trend-line of the pattern, which would be above the October 2007 highs.

If so, this means that the coming Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down has not yet started, is going to start within the next two years, and will be much worse than what we have seen over the past decade.

Megaphones are topping patterns. The slopes of the top and bottom boundary lines are identical in reverse, and authentic since the lines are drawn off two top and two bottom points, which adds to the probability that this pattern is occurring.

Next we show a Big Picture Historical Elliott Wave Labeling for the Dow Industrials. The chart shows that Grand Supercycle wave {III} up is completing now with a Megaphone Top Jaws of Death pattern. This is a major Bearish topping pattern that should complete in 2011 or 2012. We cannot be sure when this Cycle Degree wave V up will finish its Megaphone pattern because the fifth wave (E) up can either truncate or rise to the upper boundary. There are no hard and fast rules. Next will be the mother of all declines, Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down, which will be so bad, it could be a coming Tribulation period of war, pestilence, and natural disasters. Then a golden era, Grand Supercycle degree wave {V} up will follow. The Great Depression was of Supercycle degree, wave (IV) down, and was not of Grand Supercycle degree, like the coming Bear Market will be, which means this coming Bear Market will be worse.

The present Megaphone Top pattern is dangerous. Extremely dangerous. Enjoy the finish in the final rising wave (E) up completing now because there were seven previous instances where large Megaphone Broadening Top patterns occurred, some taking several years to form, and all seven of those patterns led to immediate stock market crashes once those patterns finished.

What we can glean from these seven patterns is their final rally leg wave "e" up rose to the upper boundary of the Symmetrical Megaphone pattern. If this happens again now, it means the Industrials could rise above their October 2007 highs. If that is going to happen, it is likely the massive Megaphone Top pattern we are tracking from 1998 probably will not complete until later in 2011, perhaps as late as 2012. Then all hell breaks loose as this is the largest Megaphone Top pattern of the past century and certainly is a fitting conclusion to the multi-century Grand Supercycle degree wave {III} top finishing with this pattern. There is a coming Tribulation period that will last several years, Grand Supercycle degree wave {IV} down. The good news is that once it is over, a wonderful positive Grand Supercycle degree wave {V} will follow.

Below we show one of those seven Jaws of Death Megaphone patterns of the past century. All seven of those previous Megaphone patterns were of smaller degree than the one completing now. We presented all seven of those patterns in our newsletter, issue no. 1572, April 29th, at www.technicalindicatorindex.com .

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