BofA sees higher gold prices, likely to hit $5,000/oz in 2026
NEW YORK (November 24) Bank of America (BofA) expects gold to extend its record-breaking momentum into 2026, arguing that the macro environment that lifted the metal through 2025 remains firmly intact.
In its ’Year Ahead’ outlook, the bank says gold has climbed through a series of all-time highs and is technically “overbought,” yet still “underinvested,” a combination that keeps the market supported despite stretched valuations.
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Strategists led by Michael Widmer point to the policies that helped propel bullion higher this year, noting that “many of the macro drivers – including the unorthodox U.S. economic policies that pushed the yellow metal higher – remain supportive.”
As long as those forces stay in place, BofA sees a credible pathway for gold to reach $5,000 an ounce in 2026, although a hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve remains the key downside risk.
BofA now expects gold to average 4,538 dollars an ounce next year. The bank frames its upgrade within a broader commodity backdrop shaped by tight supply in several mined markets, low inventories and uneven demand across regions.
While the macro outlook for 2026 is challenging – particularly in China – gold stands out among precious metals for having clear, persistent tailwinds.
Meanwhile, copper and aluminium are set to face continued supply constraints next year. The bank expects copper to remain in deficit unless China’s demand falls by more than 3%, supported by stronger consumption in the U.S. and Europe.
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Aluminium shows a similar pattern, with global supply growth “insufficient to prevent shortfalls,” prompting BofA to lift its 2026 price forecast to $3,125 a tonne
The outlook for the rest of the precious-metals complex is more mixed. Silver demand is projected to fall 11% next year, driven by reduced usage from solar-panel manufacturers.
Even so, the strategists see “scope for prices to average $60/oz, as the market is in deficit,” implying that constrained supply may offset softer consumption.
Platinum is also expected to remain in deficit in 2026, with an average price forecast of $1,825 an ounce. Palladium, by contrast, “looks oversupplied,” and BofA forecasts an average of $1,525 an ounce.
Overall, BofA believes the metal landscape will be defined by five pressure points in 2026.
These include slowing Chinese demand, supply constraints in key base metals, low exchange inventories, a potential revival of the electrification and data-centre/AI trade, and the continued influence of unconventional U.S. economic policies.
Investing.com
