Gold Price Forecast: Correction Targets

Gold has had a massive run for 2025, up 53% or nearly $1,400 since January, when it traded at $2,600 per ounce. Gold recently made a new all-time high at $4,381 in the spot market in October.

However, nothing moves in a straight line forever, and it is time for a pullback / consolidation in gold to last for several months to several years. In this article, we will examine the support levels that are likely to serve as bottom zones for gold on this correction.

Gold Short Term Top

Gold has triggered a short-term top pattern, a head and shoulders top (blue), as can be seen in the chart above. Support (magenta) has been broken (red callout), thus triggering the pattern. The top has an amplitude of $380, which, when subtracted from the breakdown point, yields a target of $3,645 (green).

This is our highest probability expectation for gold over the short run: the precious metal will round down and decline toward $3,645 over the coming months.

Could Gold Recover?

We must always look to identify levels which would tell us that gold has other plans in store. In this case, two daily closes back above the (magenta) trend, which currently comes in at $4,100, would negate the above pattern and tell us that the pullback or correction is going to be shorter than we anticipated. We would have no problem becoming bullish again if gold can give us this signal – however, the onus is on the market to prove this to us, and the breakdown is valid unless proven otherwise.

Gold Longer-Term Support

Longer-term, $3,645 may not serve as a long-term bottom, as when we zoom out the chart, we can see that there is very little support on the weekly timescale until $3,360, the apex of the most recent consolidation that gold was in from April – August 2025.

Investors forget that just three years ago, gold was trading near $1,600 per ounce – almost tripling from 2022 in three years! In previous gold corrections, such as from 2008 – 2009, and 2011 – 2015, gold corrected 35% and 45%, respectively.

It is extremely conceivable that gold could witness a 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the entire 2022 – 2025 advance. Such is perfectly within the realm of normal corrective behavior, even in a longer term bull market. That level would come in at $3,325, or just below the apex consolidation support, increasing the evidence that the low-mid $3,300’s should serve as important intermediate-term support for gold.

Ideas for Gold’s Correction

Gold nearly tripled in three years, and has had its best single year for 2025 at +53% since 1979. Nothing – not even gold – moves in a straight line forever. Neither central bank buying, nor BRICS countries, nor China selling US treasuries will stop some investors from taking profits after such a run, which will cause some of the developing decline.

Our targets are lower for gold until proven otherwise. Investors should be taking defensive actions, depending on their level of exposure.

While we are cautious on physical gold over the coming months, gold mining companies that are making bona-fide new discoveries can thrive in a gold price environment that merely consolidates above the key $3,000 per ounce figure. We are currently investing in several such promising companies while we wait for physical gold itself to resume its upward trend. At www.iGoldAdvisor.com, we publish the exact investment decisions we are making here, along with all the research to back up our decisions, for investors who care to follow our moves. Our most recent trades in gold miners yielded gains of 53% in one week and 254% in just one month!

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