Gold Price Forecast: October's Blow-Off Top Supports Quick Drop Toward $3,500

On Friday, October 17th, we alerted readers that gold was exhibiting a rare blow-off top, which could trigger a 20% correction. Prices peaked the following Monday and have since fallen back below $4,000.

Our analysis suggests additional downside risk through November, with gold potentially targeting $3,500. Silver’s pullback may be more severe, possibly declining toward $40 before the next major up leg — a move that could propel prices towards $100 in 2026.

The 2006 Blow-Off Top

Gold entered a powerful bull market in 2005 after breaking above $500—a level it has not fallen below since. The breakout accelerated into a sharp rally, culminating in a mini blow-off top in 2006: prices jumped 36% in two months. This surge was quickly followed by a steep 25% pullback over about a month, retracing exactly to the 200-day moving average.

The 2025 Blow-Off Top

Gold flashed a rare blow-off top signal in October, after surging 32% in just two months. If the pattern continues to mirror the 2006 setup, a pullback toward $3,500 appears likely in the second half of November, with the potential to fill the price gap near $3,450.

Silver Forecast

Silver made new all-time highs, signaling the start of a potential generational breakout. A short-term pullback to fill the price gap near $40.00 is possible in November before the next leg higher. Ultimately, we believe prices could challenge the $100 level next year.

Platinum Update

Platinum remains the only precious metal yet to surpass its all-time high of $2,300 set in 2008. While we expect significantly higher prices, potentially as soon as next year, a short-term pullback toward the 200-day moving average, nearing $1,250 in November, appears likely first.

GDX Weekly Chart

Gold miners nailed the $85.00 price target of the 4-year rounded bottom within a few pennies, and we are finally getting a pullback.

GDX Daily Chart

Miners are currently trading below the 50-day EMA, and the decline could extend toward the 200-day MA in November. In our view, a move down to support near $55.00 would present an excellent buying opportunity.

GDXJ Daily Chart

Junior miners have rallied 280% since October 2023, and a period of consolidation now seems likely. A pullback toward support around $72.50 could offer an attractive opportunity to add to positions.

SILJ Daily Chart

Silver juniors have rallied 275% in less than two years, and a pullback now appears likely. Former resistance around the $18.00 level may act as support, while in a worst-case scenario, prices could retrace toward the 200-day moving average.

In Closing

Gold confirmed a new bull trend in 2024, with silver, platinum, and mining equities following in 2025. These trends are still in their early stages, and we anticipate substantially higher prices by 2030. Near-Term: metals and mining stocks reached significant peaks in October, which could trigger equally sharp corrections.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.

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