Four key drivers will determine gold’s price trajectory in 2026 – WGC’s Artigas

NEW YORK (December 30) Gold prices have benefited from four drivers in 2025 – each of which have contributed about equally to its gains – and these factors will also determine the direction and degree of price changes in 2026, according to World Gold Council Global Head of Research Juan Carlos Artigas.

In a recent interview, Artigas outlined the key factors that drove gold to unprecedented highs in 2025, and how the yellow metal could sustain its upward trajectory through the coming year.

Artigas noted that gold has outperformed the broader market in 2025, and two macro drivers were the key to its success.

“First, a supercharged geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, and also a generalized weakness in the US dollar and marginally lower interest rates,” he said. “If we combine these two things with the positive price momentum, then investment demand has been particularly supporting performance.”

He also pointed out that central banks continued to be strong and steady net buyers – even if the pace has slowed somewhat from the last two years. “But there's also a sense that momentum has been one of the primary drivers of gold's performance.”

Artigas conducted a quantitative analysis of gold’s major drivers, and the results showed a surprisingly balanced picture.

“When we look at our gold return attribution model and we look at the four main factors that explain what's been driving gold's performance – that being economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost, and momentum – what's been interesting is those four factors together have all contributed roughly 10% each,” he said. “And while yes, momentum has been a bigger factor this year versus other years, I think what's really important to look at is all four of them have been consistent and persistent throughout the entire year.”

When asked what investors can expect from gold in 2026, Artigas pointed to the confluence and the interaction between the two macro drivers he shared at the outset.

“Concretely, the gold price right now reflects macro consensus expectations,” he explained. “What this means is that if the economy plays out in the way that economists and market participants are anticipating, then gold prices may remain somewhat rangebound. The reality, however, is that this rarely ever happens. It's not very likely for the economy to play out exactly as anticipated. So, it is more interesting to understand what are the factors that could push gold prices higher or lower from here.”

Among the factors that could boost prices, Artigas said that economic data in the U.S. and internationally has been mixed. “But if we start to see a shallow slip into the US economy, which would prompt the Fed to cut rates and the dollar to further weaken, this could support gold prices,” he said. “Now, depending on the speed and the magnitude of those rate cuts by the Fed, gold prices may increase anywhere from five to 15%. But if economic conditions deteriorate significantly more – whether it is because there's worsening geoeconomic conditions or because of the aftermath of some of the current economic policies – then we could see investment demand significantly increase.”

And even though investment demand has surged in 2026, Artigas sees far more capacity for growth.

“Since May 2024 to date, gold ETFs have amassed about 800 tons of gold,” he said. “And that sounds like a lot, but in reality, putting things into perspective, that's not even half of what we've seen in previous periods of risk. So again, if conditions get significantly worse, then we could see much more demand not only from gold ETFs, but also OTC markets, derivatives markets, and central banks. And the gold price in those conditions could even go above $5,000 an ounce.”

Artigas was asked about the price impact of a potential pullback in investment demand, and he didn’t rule one out. “To a degree, gold's risk premium reflects some of the current conditions,” he said. “If U.S. economic policies actually have a positive effect and we start to see growth, whether it is because of resolution of trade negotiations or more friendly fiscal policies, then part of that premium will go away, and gold prices could start to come down – we estimate anywhere from 5 to 20% depending on the specifics of those conditions.”

He also noted two other factors that will influence gold prices in 2026.

“Central bank demand in recent years has been robust and a lot of this has been driven not just by macro decisions but also policy decisions,” he said. “In the event that we see central banks continue to buy, that will further support the gold price, but if we start to see demand fall anywhere below 700 to 600 tons, that could also weigh on the gold price moving forward.”

The other area of risk for the WGC is recycling, particularly in India. “We're seeing gold jewelry being pledged as collateral for loans in the region,” Artigas said. “In the event that you have economic deterioration in India, that could have the result of forced liquidations or selling into the market, which will create a spike in supply and, as a result dampen gold prices.”

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