Gold at $5,000 in 2026 is just the beginning: why one fund manager says the real opportunity lies in miners

NEW YORK (December 17) Gold’s unprecedented 65% price surge this year has caught many investors and analysts off guard. And while the precious metal may look expensive, with prices holding new support above $4,300 an ounce, one portfolio manager still sees plenty of value in the marketplace in 2026.

In an interview with Kitco News, Eric Strand, founder and portfolio manager of AuAg Funds, said that gold remains on track to hit its long-term target of $10,000, and that any price below that level next year remains a bargain.

Looking ahead to the next 12 months, Strand said that he expects $5,000 is an achievable target. However, instead of focusing on a specific price target for next year, Strand said investors should be more focused on the trend line, which he believes will remain upward.

Despite gold’s dramatic rise, Strand noted that institutional ownership remains remarkably low. Family offices and professional investors allocate less than 2% of portfolios to gold, a figure he believes could easily rise toward 5% without triggering anything resembling speculative excess.

That shift alone would represent hundreds of billions of dollars in incremental demand. And crucially, Strand said the rotation is no longer limited to equities.

“We’re starting to see a new version of the 60/40 portfolio,” he said. “More like 60/20/20—where bonds lose share and gold gains it.”

With sovereign debt exploding, deficits entrenched, and long-dated bond yields increasingly difficult to suppress without intervention, gold is re-emerging not just as an inflation hedge but as an alternative monetary asset.

From U.S. deficits running near historic extremes to stimulus programs in China, Japan, and Europe—and rising defense spending across NATO—Strand said he expects renewed monetary expansion through the new year. Rate cuts, yield-curve control, or outright quantitative easing are all back on the table.

“In our view, QE is coming,” he said. “And debt monetization will be a major driver of gold prices.”

In that environment, Strand believes gold above $4,000 is not expensive—it is merely reflective of what has already occurred. What comes next, he argues, is still not priced in.

However, if investors are concerned that they missed the boat on gold, Strand said there is plenty of potential in other areas of the precious metals space, specifically on the equity side.

Why the Real Opportunity Is in Mining Stocks

While gold has captured headlines, Strand believes the most asymmetric opportunity lies elsewhere: mining equities.

Despite strong gains, he argues miners are still cheap relative to the underlying metals—and relative to their own history. More importantly, the sector has fundamentally changed its behavior.

He said that many gold producers appear to have learned from the mistakes of the past, using record free cash flow to pay down debt, increase dividends, and buy back shares—often at depressed valuations.

“They’ve become shareholder-friendly,” Strand said. “And that’s a big change.”

At the same time, a lack of new mine development has constrained future supply. Consolidation through mergers and acquisitions may boost efficiency, but it does not create new ounces.

“That actually puts a floor under the gold price,” Strand noted. “You don’t get more gold by buying each other.”

Silver: The Leverage Trade Few Are Ready For

If gold is underowned, Strand believes silver is outright misunderstood.

Silver’s dual role as a monetary metal and a critical industrial input—from electronics to solar panels—creates what Strand calls a “monetary metal with a physical shortage.”

As the gold-silver ratio has begun to compress from historically extreme levels, Strand sees much further to go. Long term, he believes the ratio could fall toward 30-to-1—and eventually even lower.

“A ratio of 30-to-1 is not unnormal for a bull market,” he said. “But we think it could get down to 10-to-1 by the end.”

In practical terms, that implies significantly higher silver prices over time, with silver miners offering leverage far beyond the underlying metal.

“When gold doubles, silver can do much more,” Strand said. “And the miners can outperform both.”

2026 Outlook: Returns Over Safety

Strand is careful not to fixate on short-term price targets, but his directional confidence is clear. Gold above $5,000 in 2026 would not surprise him. Longer term, he continues to argue that $10,000 gold is plausible if monetary expansion continues.

But for investors seeking returns—not just protection—his message is unambiguous.

“This is no longer just a safety trade,” he said. “It’s a return play. And that means miners.”

A Rotation Still in Its Early Days

Perhaps Strand’s most compelling point is psychological. Gold and mining equities have spent years ignored by professional investors. That is now beginning to change—but only slowly.

Once performance pressure builds, he expects adoption to accelerate.

“When some managers start outperforming because they own miners, others won’t be able to stand aside,” he said. “That’s when the real move happens.”

For now, gold’s rise has forced a reassessment. By 2026, Strand believes it could trigger something far larger: a full re-rating of precious metals equities in portfolios that have long dismissed them.

And by then, the idea that gold at $4,000 was “too expensive” may look like a missed opportunity rather than a warning sign.

As for how to play the mining sector, Strand said that in the current environment, investors should be as diversified as possible. Jurisdictional risk, political interference, and sharp price swings mean diversification is essential, he added.

“You need 20 to 25 positions,” he said. “This is not the time to own just five stocks and hope nothing goes wrong.”