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Gold Continues to Wait for Jerome

September 20, 2023

NEW YORK (September 20) The gold market witnessed a significant surge during the Wednesday trading session, successfully surpassing the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average. However, the sustainability of this upward trend remains uncertain, primarily due to the impending Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for later Wednesday. This event is poised to exert a substantial influence not only on gold but also on the US dollar and interest rates in general. While the consensus does not predict an interest rate hike, the real question revolves around whether the Federal Reserve will persist with its tight stance or exhibit signs of hesitancy.

From a technical perspective, it appears that the gold market has recently formed a substantial double bottom pattern near the 200-Day EMA, garnering the attention of technical traders. As the market approaches the $1975 level, some resistance is anticipated. Nevertheless, if this level is successfully breached, the next target on the horizon is the psychologically significant $2000 mark. Market participants are likely to closely monitor this round figure, with additional barriers from the options market potentially increasing its significance.

Conversely, a reversal below the 50-Day EMA is a plausible scenario, possibly leading to a test of the 200-Day EMA, currently hovering closer to the $1925 level and trending upwards. If this level were to be breached, attention would then shift to the $1900 level, which is considered a critical support level. Any decline beyond this point could spell trouble for gold. However, at present, the prevailing momentum appears to favor the upside. This does not imply that the market will continually surge, but rather that there is substantial buying interest overall.

Consequently, the market is poised for a continued pattern of back-and-forth movement, albeit with a leaning towards upward momentum. Wednesday’s session is expected to be characterized by heightened volatility. However, it appears that the market has already set its sights on higher levels in the upcoming weeks. Given this outlook, shorting gold may prove to be a challenging endeavor unless the FOMC delivers an unexpected shock to the market. This would entail a sudden dovish shift by Powell, but such a scenario appears unlikely at this juncture. As of now, we anticipate increased volatility in the near future.


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