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Gold Markets Running Into Exhaustion

March 16, 2023

NEW YORK (March 16) Gold markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Thursday as there seems a lot of noisy behavior and therefore it’s very likely that we have a lot of indecision just waiting to happen. After all, we have gone parabolic and that typically doesn’t end very smoothly. That doesn’t necessarily mean that we have to have a major change of trend, just that a pullback is probably imminent.

This will be especially true if we see the US dollar pickup strength, especially if it is due to the fact that the bond market is attracting inflows. The $1900 level underneath should offer a bit of support, as it had been both support and resistance in the past. It’s also worth noting that gold may be getting a bit of a bid in order to preserve wealth in a time where we are seeing serious concerns about the banking system.

Furthermore, there are also bailouts coming, and that will more likely than not depreciate several currencies, depending on where the banks are located. In other words, gold has a lot working for it at the moment, but momentum can only last for so long, and that may be part of what we are looking at here.

The 50-Day EMA is closer to the $1860 level, and I would think that would also have to be thought of as major support. Any pullback that threatens to go down to that area should be looked at as a potential buying opportunity, unless of course bonds in the US dollar suddenly start to skyrocket again. On the upside, the $1950 level will more likely than not end up being significant resistance, but if we can break above there then we can test the recent highs again. Anything above that then opens up the door to $2000.

Gold has been very noisy, but the one thing that it has remained consistent about is its overall attractiveness is a flight to safety over the last several months, despite the fact that we did have a rather significant pullback in February. Buying the dip continues to be the best way to play this market.


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