Gold positive after German election result rules out far right participation

LONDON (February 24) Gold’s price (XAU/USD) is holding on to intraday gains on Monday, trading near $2,947 at the time of writing, supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD) and softer US yields in a reaction to the recent German federal election outcome. Although the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained 20% of votes, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) is comfortable in the lead with 208 seats against AfD’s 152. US yields dropped off and the CME Federal Reserve (Fed) Futures are now favoring a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in June, where last week odds were rather for no rate cut in June. 

Meanwhile, traders will watch the US Gross Domestic Product (GBP) release for the fourth quarter of 2024 later this week. Given the recent slowdown in US activity and economic data (for example, the softer Services Purchase Managers Index (PMI) reading on Friday), another drop in US yields could be triggered, with markets anticipating the Federal Reserve lowering its monetary policy rate to boost the economy and demand. 

Daily digest market movers: US yields on the move

• US Yields drop off further on Monday, with the US 10-year benchmark rate already down over 3% against the 4.573% high from last week. The CME Fed Futures for June revealed odds for a 25 basis points rate cut overtaking odds for no rate cut by 46.0% for a rate cut against 42.3% for no rate cut in the June 18th policy meeting.  
• Canada’s Equinox Gold Corporation sought to acquire Calibre Mining in a deal that would value the combined companies at $5.4 billion. This is the latest example of dealmaking as miners capitalize on record gold prices, Bloomberg reports. 
• The US dollar weakened after several reports and economic data points last week revealed that US business activity slowed and consumer confidence waned, with expectations for inflation surging and markets pricing in more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, Bloomberg reports.
• Conservative CDU leader Friedrich Merz emerged as the winner in Sunday’s German federal election. However, the results gave his Christian Democrat-led bloc just one clear path to power, facing intense pressure to quickly form a government. While the far-right AfD doubled support to become the second-strongest party with 20.8% of the votes, it fell short of a blocking minority on its own, the Financial Times reports. 

FXStreet