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Gold price holds steady despite firm US Dollar ahead of PMIs

September 22, 2023

NEW YORK (September 22) Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to find a direction as investors remain uncertain about the interest rate peak after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The precious metal trades inside Thursday’s range as the upside is restricted due to the US economic resilience, which has been keeping expectations alive over one more interest rate increase from the Fed. On the downside, Gold also looks well supported due to consistently falling core inflation.

While the US economy has remained strong on the grounds of labor demand, wage growth, services sector activity, and consumer spending, the country’s manufacturing sector has remained a major concern. US factory activity has been contracting for a long time,  and further pressure cannot be ruled out as firms aim to control costs through lower inventory backup to avoid higher working capital requirements.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price trades directionless ahead of S&P Global PMIs

  • Gold price rebounds to near $1,925.00 as investors see pain in the global economy on expectations that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer.
  • The precious metal attempted a recovery despite resilient US Dollar and Treasury yields as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year.
  • As per the CME Fedwatch tool, traders see a 71% chance for interest rates remaining steady at 5.25%-5.50% in the November monetary policy meeting.
  • However, Fed policymakers delivered a hawkish interest rate outlook, hinting at one more interest rate increase of 25 basis points (bps), which will push interest rates to 5.50%-5.75%.
  • Fed policymakers may continue favoring a steady monetary policy as core inflation is consistently falling and a recent rise in gasoline prices will likely have a limited impact on overall inflationary pressures.
  • While higher interest rates from the Fed are easing inflationary pressures, investors shift focus on the economic data, which will set a base for upcoming monetary policy meetings.
  • US economic conditions, particularly steady employment and wage growth as well as upbeat consumer spending, may keep excess inflation over the desired rate of 2% extremely stubborn.
  • The Bank of America (BofA) is optimistic about the US economic outlook on strong consumer spending momentum, lowering the chances of a recession.
  • In the monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, Fed policymakers said that the US economy is withstanding higher borrowing costs.
  • Fed policymakers are interested in keeping interest rates sufficiently high for longer to bring inflation down. According to their projections, benchmark rates will stay above 5% next year and end 2025 at almost 4%. Fed members expect inflation to be under control in 2026, but interest rates are expected to be well above pre-pandemic levels.
  • US equities could come under pressure as higher interest rates for a longer period could dent economic growth.
  • The upside in the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains restricted as investors await the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs for September, which will be published at 13:15 GMT.
  • The Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally to 48.0 from August’s reading of 47.9. The Services PMI, which tracks a sector that accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, is anticipated to rise to 50.6 from 50.5 in August.
  • The US Manufacturing PMI has come in below 50 for many months, signaling that the country’s factory activity has been contracting for a long period as firms are working on achieving efficiency through controlling costs in building inventories. Producers are operating at lower capacity due to a bleak demand outlook.
  • The US Dollar may continue to enjoy higher appeal as other G7 economies are facing risks of a slowdown due to an inability to absorb the consequences of restrictive interest rate policy.


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