LBMA Precious Metals Analyst Survey sees silver well above $100, wide range for gold, new highs for PGMs

NEW YORK (January 20) Gold and silver continue to see extraordinary bullish momentum, with prices moving toward key targets of $5,000 and $100 an ounce, respectively. However, analysts surveyed by the London Bullion Market Association suspect these could prove to be only minor resistance points in a much larger uptrend this year.

On Tuesday, the LBMA published its annual Precious Metals Analyst Survey, which projects gold prices to average around $4,741.97 an ounce this year.

“Analysts expect the metal to average 38% above last year’s levels, fuelled by expectations of lower U.S. real rates, continued Fed easing and unwavering central-bank diversification away from the dollar,” the LBMA said in its report. “Geopolitical tension continues to cement gold’s role as the world’s premier safe haven.”

However, looking beyond the headline forecast, individual expectations show a broad range of projections. The report said the forecasting range this year is $3,700, with the most bearish target at $3,450 an ounce and the most bullish target at $7,150 an ounce.

The report added that the forecasting range for gold is up 103% from last year’s price movement and more than 200% from analyst expectations at the start of last year.

Julia Du, commodity strategist at ICBC Standard Bank, is the most bullish on gold, calling for the yellow metal to hit $7,150 this year, with an average annual price target of $6,050. She expects prices to hold support at $4,100 an ounce.

“I expect 2026 to be a year of heightened geopolitical risk and strong safe-haven demand, allowing gold to continue the volatile yet upward trend. Central banks are likely to keep adding to reserves, institutional investors will increase portfolio allocations, and retail demand – especially in Latin America – should remain robust. Combined with continued Fed rate cuts, these forces support a bullish bias,” Du said in her analysis.

Robin Bhar, founder of Robin Bhar Metals Consulting, had the most bearish forecast, seeing gold prices averaging around $4,000 an ounce this year. He sees support at $3,500 an ounce, with prices peaking at $5,000 an ounce.

“A perfect storm of factors is providing a strong tailwind to gold prices,” Bhar said in his forecast. “Economic and heightened political uncertainty, including concerns about Fed independence, will ensure gold remains a vital asset to provide a hedge. Geopolitical risks continue to bubble in various hot spots, adding to inflationary risks and continued safe-haven demand for gold. Central bank buying should continue to be an important support factor, as will continued portfolio diversification and speculative money on the long side.”

Alexander Zumpfe, precious metals trader at Heraeus, provided the lowest support level at $3,450 an ounce, but sees prices peaking this year at $5,200 an ounce.

Zumpfe added that while he expects periods of profit-taking and consolidation, the market remains well supported by robust investment demand.

Meanwhile, silver is expected to see another unprecedented year after rallying nearly 150% last year. Analysts are forecasting an average price of $79.57 an ounce in 2026, up 98% from 2025’s actual average price.

“Structural deficits, tight mine supply and accelerating demand from electrification, electronics and AI-driven technologies are keeping bullish pressure intact,” the LBMA said. “But after 2025’s explosive gains, analysts warn the market is stretched. Price-sensitive sectors are already rolling over, and any easing of tariffs or physical bottlenecks could unwind premiums just as substitution and recycling ramp up.”

Du was very bullish on silver as well, seeing prices averaging $125 an ounce for the year, with silver expected to trade in a range between $62 and $150 an ounce.

“I expect silver to deliver a bullish performance in 2026, supported by the same macro drivers as gold: persistent geopolitical tensions, strong safe-haven demand, and continued Fed rate cuts,” Du said. “Silver’s smaller market size and lower entry cost make it more volatile, attracting investors seeking alternatives to expensive gold. Structural supply deficits – driven by robust photovoltaic and industrial demand – combined with rising jewellery and investment purchases, will amplify price swings.”

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, was the most bearish, calling for an average price of $44.25 an ounce, with prices trading in a range between $42 and $86 an ounce.

“With tariffs unlikely to materialise this year, the white metal – which is trading deep in overbought territory – is projected to drop into the mid-$40s sometime in 2026. With U.S. tariffs not being an issue, excess metal located in the U.S. should continue to flow back into the LBMA system, providing liquidity and eliminating much of the current price premia. Weak physical demand and a slowdown in investor interest could well be the trigger for the expected correction,” he said.

Ross Norman, CEO of Metals Daily, had the most bullish price target for silver, seeing the precious metal peaking at $165 an ounce.

Looking at platinum group metals, analysts expect platinum to outperform palladium in the coming year.

Analysts forecast platinum to average $2,222.14 an ounce, up 74.32% from last year’s average. Meanwhile, palladium prices are expected to average $1,740.25 an ounce, up 51% from 2025.

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