Record start to 2026 brings prospect of $5,000 gold into view
NEW YORK (January 13) Gold and silver's upward run has reignited, with bullion topping $4,600 an ounce for the first time and big brokerages predicting $5,000 as a range of factors intensify, boosting the metal's safe-haven cachet.
Spot gold traded as high as $4,629.94 per ounce on Monday, while silver climbed to a record of $86.22/oz in the same session.
The metal has gained more than 6% in just 13 days of 2026, after breaking through multiple milestones and gaining 64% last year.
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Major brokerages expect gold to reach $5,000/oz in 2026, anticipating that safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tension, monetary policy easing, ETF inflows and central bank buying will carry forward the momentum from last year.
GEOPOLITICAL AND MACRO DRIVERS
Gold's record high on Monday was fuelled by concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve after Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration had threatened him with criminal indictment.
There is also broad political uncertainty stemming from the U.S. seizure of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro in a military raid, U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to take control of Greenland and Trump weighing up whether to intervene in the unrest in Iran.
"Real assets come to the fore in the kind of environment we're looking at," said independent precious metals analyst Ross Norman.
"The rules are out the window. Precious metal is reflecting all of that."
Gold has also benefited from expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
"Should current geopolitical risks persist and U.S. rate-cutting expectations remain intact, gold may attempt a more sustained breach of $4,600 in the coming weeks," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst.
ETF INFLOWS AND CENTRAL BANK BUYING
Central bank demand for gold has been elevated for four years and is likely to continue into 2026, alongside strong investment demand, analysts said.
China's central bank extended its gold-buying spree to a 14th month in December, bringing its holdings to 74.15 million fine troy ounces.
As the gold price notched up record highs 53 times in 2025, annual inflows into physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surged to $89 billion, the largest on record, according to the World Gold Council.
Holdings of the largest gold-backed ETFs including New York's SPDR Gold Trust reached 1,073.41 metric tons on December 29, their highest in more than three years.
FURTHER MOMENTUM FOR SILVER
Silver's 147% gain last year was supported by robust investment demand, its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list prompting substantial outflows to stocks in the U.S., refining capacity bottlenecks and persisting structural market deficit.
"It's likely that there could be volatility in the market and if things remain as they are, I think prices will be soon pushing towards $90/oz," said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari.
A three-digit peak is looking likely for silver this year, consultancy Metals Focus said, as silver's smaller market size amplifies price movements when it benefits from many of the macroeconomic factors driving gold investment.
HSBC expects silver to trade between $58 and $88 an ounce in 2026, but warned of a market correction later in the year as supply constraints ease.
