Wall Street waxes bullish amid geopolitical and technical momentum, Main Street sets 2026 sentiment high as gold challenges $5,300/oz

NEW YORK (February 27) Precious metals prices saw sharp rallies early and late this week, with geopolitics once again dominating the daily headlines and spurring fresh safe-haven flows into gold and silver.

Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $5,146.59, and the momentum was all skewed to the upside in the early going. After a quick run up to $5,174 by 9:30 p.m. Sunday evening, gold dipped down to near term support at $5,125 at 3:15 a.m., after which North America came online and drove the first strong push higher, with spot gold rocketing from $5,146 at 8:45 a.m. all the way to $5,214 by 11:15, before topping out above $5,245 per ounce at 6:00 p.m. Eastern, a high that would hold until Friday's Iran drama.

By 8:15 p.m. Monday evening, gold was trading back down near $5,165 per ounce, and when North America showed up Tuesday morning, the momentum was the opposite of Monday’s, with gold falling all the way back down to support at $5,100 half an hour before the equity open, which doubled as the weekly low.

The yellow metal spent little time languishing there, however, as spot was trading right back at $5,165 just before 1:00 p.m., and after dipping back down to near-term support at $5,131 per ounce just after 6:15 p.m., gold prices moved solidly into their midweek upper range, breaking above $5,200 per ounce once again at 12:30 a.m. Wednesday morning, and trading is high as $5,215 per ounce by noon.

The yellow metal now entered the week's only real period of consolidation, albeit an elevated one, with spot gold trading in an increasingly narrow channel between $5,150 and $5,200 through the Wednesday and Thursday sessions.

But as has so often been the case of late, Friday brought the fireworks, with the Middle East evacuation orders from the United States government sending gold from $5,185 per ounce at 7:30 a.m. all the way to $5,235 just 45 minutes later, before setting a new weekly high of $5,254 by 11:00 a.m. Eastern.

As it was early in the week, so it was late, with buyers piling in ahead of the weekend, driving gold sharply upward to ultimately close at the weekly high of $5,281.15 per ounce.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street waxing bullish once again, while Main Street investors were more optimistic than they had been this year after gold’s solid gains.

“Up,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “The foundation of this gold market was laid over the past four years, with central banks buying gold like they never have in the past. The weakness in the U.S. economy, the political dysfunction in Washington DC, the weak U.S. dollar, and the USA’s mountain of debt all suggest this rally continues. If for no other reason, because foreign governments would rather own and have more faith in gold than in U.S. dollars.”

“Neutral,” said Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com. “We will go wherever the US bombs lead us.”

“Up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “Sticking with the bullish bias, no reason to question it now, although the price level is somewhat of a challenge. I was looking at 5238 as resistance after the ascending triangle breakout this week, and so far, that’s held the highs twice. So, timing wise, chasing at current levels could be a challenge, but I see no reason to flip on the trend at this point.”

“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “The situation hasn’t changed, isn't going to change for the foreseeable future. Maybe the US bombs Iran sooner rather than later. Maybe it doesn’t. Maybe it invades Greenland, or Mexico, maybe Canada, possibly Mars, who knows where the next threats be levied against. Nobody knows, so the safest thing to do is keep buying gold.”

“Up,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “We have seen the correction low. There may be some back and filling as we approach $5500, but the next major move is up, with two large, mostly price agnostic, buyers—global central banks and Tether—likely to continue to be consistent buyers.”

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, was watching the effects of the U.S. government's Iran announcements play out across commodities markets on Friday.

“There's a lot of rumor and noise here,” he said. “But that's the anticipation, that’s why energies are up, metals are up, wheat's up, corn's up, cattle's down, stock market's down 500 points in the Dow.”

Lusk said traders have no choice but to position themselves ahead of the weekend against the possibility that strikes against Iran do take place.

“You don’t want to be short. That's the thing,” he said, but added that there are plenty of other reasons to hold gold. “There's big deals with private equity here, and bankruptcies, there's all sorts of stuff geopolitically elsewhere. There's just major uncertainties out there.”

Lusk agreed that the recent rally in metals is about much more than Iran, but acknowledged that a deal or some form of de-escalation with the regime could spark a limited selloff.

“Silver could drop $15,” he said. “But what are they going to do after that? They're probably going to buy again. There's other reasons to own it. Silver is just all the rage with the industrial uses and everything else. Nobody wants to be short.”

“As far as gold and silver are concerned, the proof is in the pudding,” Lusk said. “The technicals are telling us that this thing is moving higher, dips continue to be bought. We're not in ‘sell-the-rally’ mode at all. You get some profit taking, get a number, or a Fed meeting, or a release, or what have you. But at the end of the day, they continue to buy the dips. They're not done with it.”

Turning to next week’s data, Lusk said nonfarm payrolls will likely be a nonstory as far as gold and silver prices are concerned.

“Listen, unless we see some nonsense number, like we're up 300,000, 400,000,” he said. “If that's the case, that's going to buoy the dollar and then you would see a selloff in metals. But are you going to get something like that? Probably not.” Lusk said it would take a print of at least 250,000 to dent momentum in gold and silver.

This week, 18 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street bulls maintaining their two-thirds majority after gold’s strong showing. 12 experts, or 67%, expected to see gold prices move above $5,300 during the week ahead, while only two, representing 11%, predicted a price decline. The remaining four analysts, 22% of the total, saw the risks evenly balanced in the near term.

Meanwhile, 266 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investor sentiment shooting higher after three weeks of bullishness holding in the low 60s. 202 retail traders, or 76%, looked for gold prices to rise higher still next week, while another 34, or 13%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining 30 investors, representing 11% of the total, expected prices to trend sideways during the week ahead.

Next week’s economic news calendar isn’t bursting at the seams, but the data releases that markets will receive are significant ones, including the February employment report and January retail sales, along with updated measures of the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors.

On Monday, markets will receive ISM’s Manufacturing PMI for February, with ISM Services to follow on Wednesday, along with ADP Nonfarm Payrolls.

Then on Thursday, traders will watch for weekly jobless claims, with the week culminating in the release of February’s Nonfarm Payrolls and January’s Retail Sales reports on Friday morning.

“With a US strike on Iran looking increasingly likely, gold looks set to move higher,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “A break above $5250 could signal another run at $5500. Drop in US 10-year yield below 4%, even after the higher-than-expected PPI, may help underpin prices.”

Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, told Kitco News he sees nothing but green lights for gold, for the coming week and beyond.

“I think it's constructive,” Grady said of gold’s recent performance – including its recent lows. “You can't just keep going straight up. Again, the best way to see if a market is strong is to sell it, and gold took some pressure. We lost 150,000 contracts of open interest starting from January 3rd. It started rebounding back last week, but we're not at a super high level. So I think it's constructive that the market does that.”

“I still like gold. I still like silver,” he added. “I don't think the reasons why their rallies have changed, so I still like them.”

Grady said he sees a continuation of all of the supporting factors and drivers that have been in place over the last few years. “I do,” he said. “Look, you can take every single situation and twist it, and say, ‘Okay, if they invade Iran, it's a nightmare,’ it's this, or that, or the other thing. But on the flip side, you are also solving a very big underlying problem that's out there that will have to be dealt with at some point, so you could use that as a very constructive thing.”

Grady said he doesn’t think gold needs a breather, and he expects the market to treat $5,200 the way it treated $5,100: as a fresh launching pad for further gains.

“Looking at the open interest, I think the market should test a little higher,” he said. “I think that everything's in place. The market is trading constructively. I think the longs are in there. The weak longs got out. The strong hands, they're still in the market, and they're not getting out. They own bullion and they're going to stay, and I think the story stays. So, I think we’re going to test a little higher this [coming] week.”

Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, told Kitco News that he sees gold prices falling next week.

“Gold has gained about 2% since the beginning of the week, but this is a modest result only at first glance,” he said. “Most importantly, this is the third week of positive dynamics with prices recovering to levels not seen in a couple of days. Geopolitical tensions once again drove demand for commodity assets, from gold to oil, as investors grew increasingly uncertain about how stable the situation would remain heading into the weekend. In addition, pressure on the stock market, where big tech companies came under pressure, once again raised the question of hedging against existing risks.”

“Despite our commitment to the scenario that the peak in gold for the coming years is behind us, we still see technical room for a rebound to 5300, which would bring the current dynamics closer to a couple of similar cases in the past,” Kuptsikevich added. “Nevertheless, in the longer term, it is worth being prepared for lower prices and increased selling pressure.”

Analysts at CPM Group issued a Sell recommendation for gold on Friday, with an Initial Target Price of $5,100 between February 23 and March 6, and a Stop Loss at $5,275.

“A week ago, gold was trading at $5,082.60,” they noted. “CPM issued a Gold Buy Recommendation with an initial target of $5,225 and a broader objective of $5,400 over the period from 23 February through 6 March. Gold prices touched $5,266 this week and have traded as high as $5,259.30 today, Friday 27 February.”

“CPM still expects gold prices to move higher over the next month or so, but sees the potential for prices to sell off next week, during the first week of March,” they wrote. “With this in mind, CPM would advise investors with ultra-short-term trading habits of either standing aside or putting a short-term short in place.”

“This is an ultra-short-term recommendation, with a close-in stop loss level,” they cautioned. “A break above the top around $5,265 that has been forming this week could trigger short-covering that could push gold sharply higher quickly.”

And Kitco senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said elevated U.S.-Iran tensions were driving safe-haven demand heading into the weekend.

“April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,400.00,” he said. “Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,854.20. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5,269.40 and then at $5,300.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5,109.50 and then at $5,100.00.”

At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $5,278.51 per ounce for a gain of 3.12% on the week and 1.80% on the day.