January 20th may have been an important intermediate bottom in the stock market, but the bear market is still growling. January 20th was exactly 100 trading days from the August 24th low. The 100 trading low has a variance of +/- 15%. Oddly, the 16 TD low, which...
Gold Editorials & Commentary
January 25, 2016
Intermediate-term rallies in the gold-mining sector can happen during general equity bull markets and general equity bear markets, but on a long-term basis the gold-mining sector trends in the opposite direction to the broad stock market. An implication is that to...
It’s time to check on how the venerable gold-silver ratio is doing since we last spoke on it. A look at the monthly OHLC price over the last twenty years is shown below with its 20 month moving average as well as the line chart of silver.
Markets do not expect any big moves by the Fed. The odds for an interest rate hike in January are only 11.9 percent. Therefore, the U.S. central bankers are widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50 percent.
January 24, 2016
Just over midway through the first month of 2016 and – as reported last week – the trends are still mixed; but a different mix. The precious metals had started the year so bullish, have gone stagnant. Gold is stuck around the psychological $1100 level and silver...
We’re finally seeing the bounce in markets take place. Moreover, we’ve got a good mix of leading stocks which are moving well -- and tend to give the best bang for the buck in these sharp moves in our portfolio now.
After an extended period of weakness during which it exceeded its August low, SPX finally found a temporary bottom and, after a climactic finish, started a counter-trend rally which looks just about complete. It’s now a question or whether this is all we get before...
We start with this from the "Honesty is the Best Policy Dept.", for whilst markets all 'round are lurching about, does Gold not seem a bit docile throughout? Pro-Gold as we are, 'tis dutiful for us to point out that price -- as regularly regressed to the changes of...
The purpose of this update is to define exactly where we are on the market clock, because if we know where we are, broadly speaking we will know where we are going.
The Dow Jones Index managed to eke out an advance last week, but only by 105 points from the previous Friday’s close. The Dow Jones has been under tremendous selling pressure these past three weeks; the first three weeks of 2016. If the current decline is merely a...
January 23, 2016
Critics of today's fiat currency/fractional reserve banking world have (for what seems like forever) made the common sense point that when debt rises faster than cash flow, bad things are bound to happen. In every cycle since 1980 this has been dismissed by the vast...
We keep reiterating that one need not be expert, nor even conversant, in reading a chart to be able to understand and appreciate how charts “talk” and reveal very clear information. Opinions are of no consequence, regardless of how strong or otherwise “informed” one...
Gold sector is on major sell signal. Cycle is down. Looking for lower prices overall.Silver is on a long term sell signal and investors should be in cash or short. Short term is on buy signal but prices are consolidating, which suggests a break to new low in coming...
From 1950-1990 Japanese investors were ever shouting banzai…Banzai…BANZAI. The term “BANZAI” is deeply rooted in the proud Nippon culture and remarkable history for countless generations. It has several related meanings, depending on the context in which used. In...
January 22, 2016
Gold and Silver have held up well during the recent selloff in equities. From December 28 through Wednesday the broad NYSE lost 10.4% while the S&P500 lost 9.6%. Precious Metals gained strength during that period. Gold advanced 3.0% while Silver gained 1.7%....
This article assumes one is trading the up and down swings in the stock market. Swing traders are just one segment of a market population that includes those sitting in cash (and/or risk ‘off’ vehicles like Treasury Bonds), maintaining longer-term short positions,...
It’s been crazy so long it feels like normal…Several $ Trillion in global debt “pays” negative interest. Loan your capital to an essentially bankrupt government and lose a portion of that capital every year! Strange and crazy!
Technical Analysis of The Market Via Videos.
Gold stocks remain the pariah of the investment world. Despite gold’s strong early-year gains, the stocks of its miners have slumped to new secular lows. This whole forsaken sector continues to languish at fundamentally-absurd price levels, an extreme anomaly that...
The year 2015 was remarkable. For the first time, a year with the ending in five number did not accomplish a gain. On the nearer-term, the Turn of the Year trade was the weakest in decades. It's been widely reported that many hedge-fund strategies were not...
The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars...
Have we reached peak precious metals? Many analysts think so. Just to be clear, however, the idea of peak gold and peak silver doesn’t refer to a peak prices. The precious metals put in a cyclical price high in 2011. But annual mining production levels may have...
In the fall of 2015, the world descended into an economic apocalypse that will transform the globe into a single cashless society. As we enter 2016, we are only beginning to see this Epocalypse form through the fog of war. The war I’m talking about is the world war...
The January ECB Meeting is behind us. As expected, the Governing Council left the interest rates unchanged. In his introductory statement to the press conference, Mario Draghi pointed out: “downside risks have increased again amid heightened uncertainty about...
January 21, 2016
There’s a whiff of the Thirties in the air. Global markets had their worst start ever. But the market is confusing coincidence with causation. In a déjà vu moment there are concerns that oil’s collapse is America’s next sub-prime disaster – after all, the big banks...
Investors should analyze 2016 year to date action…as it is generally a good predictor of how the year will look. Major capitulation in oil and global market rout sends investors to the sidelines seeking out capital preservation. Volatility is soaring and precious...
Concluding, the broad stock market accelerated its short-term downtrend yesterday. The S&P 500 index reached the lowest since early 2014, as it got closer to 1,800 mark. Overall, it is one of the most bearish beginnings of a new year in history so far. Will it...
The 2008 financial crisis marks the return of gold into the international monetary system. It is also the beginning of currency wars. 2008 is also the year central banks stopped selling gold reserves and instead started buying.
Russia invaded Ukraine . . . so you should buy gold. There is a civil war in Syria . . . so you should buy gold. The ECB has instituted their own form of QE . . . so you should buy gold. Terrorists attacked France . . . so you should buy gold. I even heard one...
It’s early Wednesday morning – and with oil down to $27.50/bbl; commodities; currencies, equities, and high-yield bonds crashing; and the 10-year Treasury yield – “rate hike” and all – back below 2%; only gold and silver are higher.
