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Anonymous Guru, Part - II

June 18, 1997

In the wee hours about a month ago we received an anonymous email with the following information of significant import to all concerned with what goes on in the world. Here it is. Since it is so long, we will run it as a series for several weeks. We invite comments, opinions, Op-Eds, and/or observations - and those of particular import will be posted at our website.



***THE SHOCK!: War In KOREA???!!!***

There is reason to believe that the Cold War "of old" between the communism of the East and Capitalism of the West is going to unexpectedly erupt into a Hot War of global destruction.

From where might this explosion ignite?

I'm admittedly unsure on this point, but one possibility on top of the threat of a global war starting in the Middle East is war starting in the Far East- i.e., on the divided Korean Peninsula where the final battle line between Communism and Capitalism, East and West, is believed to be drawn between Communist North Korea and Capitalist South Korea. Furthermore, this has become a symbolic focal point of the division between the haves and the have-nots, the rich and the poor, the well-fed and the hungry.

As I have mentioned before, there is reason to believe Moscow would want Korea ignited prior to or at the time of having a war unleashed in the Middle East since this will divert a sizable portion of U.S. military might into the Far East so that Washington will be unable to quell any military disturbances in the Middle-East.

Furthermore, given Moscow's recent "public" befriending of China with the recent agreement signed between Moscow and Beijing, it appears the stage has been set for application of the "One Clenched Fist" strategy in which the deceptive split between Russia and China (see the work of Anatoliy Golitsyn) would end so that the two powers could come together for a sudden, overwhelming military onslaught against the West at the appropriate time. This time appear now to be at hand.

Accordingly, war between East and West might now erupt and a potential trigger-point for this is the Korean Peninsula where North Korea is putting finishing touches on its preparations for an attack. First off, with the recent strategic, misleading defection of the top North Korean official, Hwang Jang-Yop, North Korea has infused alarming, seemingly credible intelligence (i.e., possible strategic disinformation) to South Korea that has created uncertainty in South Korea, Japan and the U.S. about the military capabilities of North Korea - particularly in terms of striking South Korea and Japan with nuclear and chemical weapons. In this way, Japan and other regional U.S. allies may be hesitant and/or unwilling to help the U.S. in repulsing a North Korean overrun of South Korea, and the U.S. may be hesitant or unwilling to use tactical nuclear weapons in response to a successful North Korean invasion. Secondly, in recent weeks, U.S. satellites have noted that black-outs are spreading across North Korea seemingly because of low fuel supplies for generating electricity. However, this is also a useful cover for the black-out of the North Korean countryside that will likely be necessary at the time the North executes its invasion plans.



Recent news articles raise some interesting questions about the newest North Korean defection crisis:

  • Given that the defector Hwang Chang-yop developed the North Korean philosophy of "Juche", or self-reliance, why was he sent on a mission to elicit help, particularly in the form of food-aid, from Japan - a country considered by North Koreans to be an ultimate imperialist enemy?
  • Why didn't Hwang defect in Japan- where he was for a couple of weeks prior to stopping by China- instead of Beijing, since China is closely allied with Pyongyang and could send him back to North Korea?
  • If Hwang was closely surrounded by North Korean agents in Japan to stop him from defecting, why was he able to casually jump into a taxi in Beijing and drive to the South Korean embassy? And if the North Korean leadership was aware Hwang Chang-yop might defect, why did they send him on an trip to Japan and China where he could seek political asylum and thereby create a dangerous political crisis in Pyongyang?
  • If Hwang knows there are tens of thousands of N. Korean agents in South Korea that had infiltrated the South Korean political, military and intelligence establishments to a high level, why did he reveal his intent to defect to South Korean contacts for upwards of a year before actually attempting to defect? Wouldn't he realize he was jeopardizing his chances of success or of even receiving an opportunity to defect?
  • Is it a coincidence that the newest Korean defection crisis is occurring at the time of the most important North Korean holiday - i.e., the birthday of Kim Jong-Il, and at a time that Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping appears to be on his death-bed?
  • What was Hwang's meetings with Vladimir Zhirinovsky in 1994 and the Central Committee of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev in 1987 all about?

So what is North Korea up to?

Clearly the defection of the North Korean Communist leader Hwang Chang-yop makes little sense. Indeed, there is reason to believe that, in reality, Hwang Chang-yop, the Communist leader who developed the North Korean philosophy of Juche that emphasizes complete obedience of North Korea's leader, is defecting because he is obeying the orders of his "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-Il. The circumstances surrounding the defection suggest the defection is being staged (and rather sloppily at that), i.e., this top Communist official is attempting to defect to South Korea as part of some sort of North Korean plan.

And what is Pyongyang's plan?

As I have long been warning, North Korea is preparing for a massive invasion of South Korea. Final preparations may have been completed during the past couple of months. If so, then the North might be planning to attack the South before spring thaw since right now rivers and rice paddies along the DMZ are frozen such that North Korean tanks and tracked vehicles can manuever off roads and thereby most easily roll into South Korea (see "Weather Factors" in the 1994 U.S. News and World Report article, "The Most Dangerous Place On Earth", 6/20/94).

North Korea's most recent war preparations are overviewed in the following excerpt from a February 16th Toronto Sun article, North Korean Kettle Threatens to Boil Over', written by Eric Margolis:

The North has backed up (recent) threats by steadily moving combat forces towards the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas. Since December (1996), Pyongyang has deployed 100 MiG fighter-bombers to hardened air bases 20-30 km north of the DMZ. These aircraft can reach South Korea's capital, Seoul, six minutes after takeoff, and are clearly positioned for surprise attack.

North Korea has also been beefing up its ground forces near the DMZ. Late last year (1996), it created a new mechanized corp tasked with striking down South Korea's east coast. New 170mm self-propelled guns have been deployed just north of the DMZ, from where they can hit Seoul. Equally alarming, the North continues to add new AN-30 transport aircraft to its growing fleet of 300. Each of these fabric- bodied planes, almost invisible to radar, carry 13 commandos whose mission is to deliver surprise, suicide assaults on South Korean and U. S. airbases. North Korea has between 88,000 and 100,000 commandos, the world's largest special warfare corps.

South Korean intelligence reports the North has at least two plutonium nuclear weapons and is close to deploying new Rodong-1 missiles, capable of delivering nuclear, chemical and biological warheads to South Korea, Okinawa, and western Japan.

Much of the food aid recently delivered to North Korea by the U.S., South Korea, Japan and international organizations has been diverted to the North Korean military, which continues to build vast warstocks of food, fuel and munitions. As so often in Asia, soldiers eat while peasants starve.

Given these potentially final preparatory steps, all North Korea needs to launch an attack is some sort of pretext. This might explain Hwang Jang-yop's recent defection in Beijing. The defection of such a high-level North Korean Communist Party leader creates the image that the political hierarchy in Pyonyang is crumbling and could implode. Consequently, a military explosion is now believed to be possible in the form of North Korea lashing out militarily against the South. That such a danger is perceived is reflected by how South Korean forces have been placed on alert since the defection crisis began last week.

The reason the potential for North Korea to unleash an attack on the South is coinciding with the potential death of Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping is likely because what is being planned between Pyongyang, Beijing, and, most importantly, Moscow, is a major regional conflict in East Asia. Thus, if a second Korean War erupts at a time of some sort of power struggle in China, the rise of a more militant, nationalist Communist leadership in Beijing can be staged such that American efforts to militarily defend South Korea from North Korea aggression will entail a confrontation between the U.S. and China. This, in turn, could be associated with a future Chinese invasion of Taiwan and an outbreak of a regional East Asian conflict that would completely tie-up American military forces in a distant part of the world (of course, just a second Korean War is sufficient for tying up a good portion of U.S. military forces in East Asia).

Importantly, the ulterior motive of future East Asian conflict is to open the way for a war in the Middle East. As explained in my "Korean Diversion" articles, with the Korean War in the early-1950's, Washington was worried Moscow, who had ordered North Korea to invade the South, was seeking to divert U.S. forces into East Asia so that America would have difficulty defending Europe from a Soviet invasion. Similarly, Moscow is likely seeking now to have North Korea, possibly with Chinese-backing, invade South Korea and precipitate a major conflict in East Asia that will draw in a huge amount of U.S. military forces. Because U.S. forces will be tied-up in East Asia, America will be unable to come to the defense of Israel and the Middle East in the event of an Arab/Russian onslaught.


"No agreement on food aid at Korean talks"

By JOHN LEICESTER, The Associated Press

BEIJING (May 5, 1997 2:32 p.m. EDT) -- Even the threat of famine could not get Red Cross officials from the rival Koreas to resolve logistical problems about delivering South Korean food aid to the Communist North.

The North Koreans refused Monday to discuss ways to transport South Korean food aid after Seoul would not say how much it plans to deliver.

But, at the end of their first talks in nearly five years, the Red Cross officials did agree to meet again.

Aid workers fear mass starvation if large-scale food relief does not reach North Korea soon. Floods devastated the reclusive state's harvests in the last two years, pushing its faltering economy into ruin.

However, the Red Cross chapters in North and South Korea are closely allied with their governments and political tensions have stymied previous talks.

The two sides met for two hours Saturday and again Monday in Beijing, but the South Koreans never proposed an amount or a time for aid deliveries, the North Koreans said.

"I expected they would have something in their hands to deliver to us, but when we arrived and met together, I came to know that they came with no firm pledge," said Paek Yong Ho, head of the North Korean Red Cross.

"Without knowing the quantity and the timing, how can we discuss transportation of relief goods?" he said.

The South Koreans said they would provide aid but could not say how much because that depended on public donations.

Saying they wanted food to reach North Korea "efficiently and promptly," the South Koreans sought to discuss detailed methods for delivering aid, but the North Koreans refused, said Chang Moon-ik, spokesman for the South Korean Embassy in Beijing.

Still, the two sides "are very keen on meeting very soon again," Red Cross official Lasse Norgaard said. Negotiators were returning to their respective capitals Tuesday for consultations. No date was set for the next talks.

Johan Schaar of the international Red Cross said the South Korean Red Cross wants aid marked to show it came from South Korea and to monitor its distribution -- proposals that are difficult for North Korea to accept.


"US sees dire conditions in North Korea"

Sunday May 4 3:10 AM EDT

WASHINGTON, May 4 (UPI) _ A published report says that North Korea's famine is much worse than previously thought.

The Sunday Times of London cites U.S. officials and aid agencies as saying that children are starving in the capital and there are growing fears that the hard-line Stalinist country may launch a military venture to distract attention from food shortages.

The newspaper says satellite photos and information from Chinese traders in North Korea indicated famine is wiping out entire villages.

A group of U.S. congressman who traveled to North Korea last month indicated conditions were worse than previously thought. They reported seeing starving children in Pyongyang, the capital.

The Sunday Times quotes World Food Program director Catherine Bertini as saying, ``If the situation remains unchecked, we could be looking at one of the biggest humanitarian disasters of our lifetime.''

North Korea, which remains virtually isolated, has suffered devastating floods in recent years.


The Toronto Sun
May 4, 1997, Sunday, Final EDITION



"North Korea is capable of turning South Korea into a sea of flames and can completely annihilate the South with nuclear and chemical weapons and missiles.

"If the U.S. uses its bases in Japan to support a war on the Korean peninsula, North Korea will attack and destroy Japan with nuclear and chemical weapons."

So states North Korea's former ideology chief, Hwang Jang Yop, who recently became the highest ranking defector ever from the world's most isolated, bizarre and dangerous nation.

As famine spreads among North Korea's 22 million people, risks of another major conflict in Korea are higher today than any time since May, 1994, when war nearly erupted over the North's secret nuclear program.

I was with the 1st Republic of Korea (ROK) Division up on the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas that dangerous May in 1994 -- and beneath the DMZ in deep tunnels bored under ROK defenses by North Korean snippers. The tension was electric as 1.8 million heavily armed Korean soldiers on both sides -- and 37,000 Americans -- went onto maximum combat alert.

North Korea's brinkmanship paid off. An outbluffed U.S. President Bill Clinton backed down, opting to bribe rather than confront the North. The price: two nuclear reactors, food and oil, all for free. The North's nuclear threat was to be simply ignored.

Three years later, North Korea is on the verge of collapse. U.S. nighttime recon photos show lights going out all over North Korea as power supplies dwindle.

But the 1.1-million man armed forces, government officials and Communist party cadres are amply provisioned. Most foreign food aid is diverted to military warehouses; the armed forces have at least 90-day supplies of oil and enough spare parts to fight for six months. "Starving" North Korea just refused rice from Vietnam.

China supplies oil to North Korea. Pyongyang gleans hard currency by counterfeiting, drug dealing, and from gambling parlors in Japan run by ethnic Korean mobsters.

But time seems to be running out for the North's Stalinists. Defector Hwang Jang Yop and U.S. military intelligence say North Korea's regime, led by Kim Jong Il, may decide to make the ultimate gamble by jumping ship from the sinking North and invading South Korea. North Korean generals believe they can conquer South Korea in a high-intensity, 20-day campaign.

Two hundred Scud-B and Frog missiles with chemical warheads would blanket the 10 air bases used by the South Korean and U.S. air forces. North Korea's large but antiquated air force would be thrown against these key targets in a suicide mission. The North's 100,000-man commando force, the world's largest, would attack air bases and command hubs from the sea, and from low-flying AN-2 transports invisible to radar.

Under firecover from 10,000 heavy guns and rocket batteries along the DMZ, four North Korean mechanized and one armored corps would attack south, possibly using nuclear weapons and chemicals to breach South Korea's version of the Maginot Line: three belts of parallel fortifications, Alpha, Bravo and Charlie, just south of the DMZ. North Korean mobile forces would race down the Munsan and Chowan Valleys, masking Seoul. By day 20, Northern forces would capture the key southern port of Pusan, 240 miles south of their start line.

Reinforcing Korea with heavy mechanized and armor divisions could take the U.S. up to six months. The only units available for immediate intervention are the lightly armed 82nd Airborne Division at Ft. Bragg and the 9th Marine Brigade at Okinawa.

U.S. bases in Japan and Okinawa would likely come under attack by North Korean missiles and commando assaults. The North has six operational Nodong-1 missiles. These 1,000-km range missiles can hit much of Japan and Okinawa with chemical or nuclear warheads.

U.S. intelligence believes the North has at least three operational nuclear plutonium warheads. A North Korean nuclear strike on Japan would neutralize U.S. bases there that are vital to the defense of Korea -- and inflict millions of casualties on Japan. The North may already have infiltrated a nuclear device into Japan by submarine.

The U.S. and Japan don't want to face these mounting dangers. They keep pressing ahead with so far fruitless four-way talks with the two Koreas, and continue efforts to bribe the North into good behavior.

North Korea has succeeded in its strategy of keeping itself in power by extorting aid from the U.S., Japan and South Korea by threatening war, and in driving a diplomatic wedge between the U.S. and South Korea.

Clinton is propping up North Korea's loathsome regime rather than facing it down -- a remarkable contrast to Washington's demolition and ongoing punishment of Iraq.

Korea's dangers are hard to overestimate. There is no weirder, more frightening or more seemingly demented regime in the world than the one in Pyongyang. The only regime of equal hideousness this writer has ever seen was dictator Enver Hoxah's hellish Stalinist Albania. Both tyrannies were characterized by extreme paranoia, deep delusions, self-enforced isolation and spasms of violence.

Forty-five million South Koreans, 125 million Japanese, and 37,000 Americans live under daily threat of nuclear, chemical or conventional attack by a lunatic regime run by shadowy men who seem a cross between savage Mongols and modern gangsters.

Part - I   THE SHOCK!: War In The Middle East?

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