Despite Mainstream Pessimism, Gold Still Shines: Why the Bull Market Isn’t Over

Money Metals Midweek Memo host Mike Maharrey isn’t buying the recent bearish turn in gold forecasts from Wall Street.

In this week’s podcast, he pushes back against the prevailing optimism in financial markets and lays out a compelling, data-backed case for why gold and silver still have room to run.

As major institutions like Citigroup predict gold could fall below $3,000 an ounce by year’s end, Maharrey warns that investors are ignoring the deeper structural forces that continue to fuel demand for real money.

Tariffs Aren’t the Only Threat

Financial analysts are breathing a little easier as U.S.–China trade tensions appear to be cooling. With signs that President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy is giving way to negotiation, optimism is returning to the stock market—and gold is being left out in the cold.

Citigroup now projects the yellow metal will retreat, arguing that easing geopolitical concerns and improving economic sentiment reduce the need for a safe-haven asset.

But Maharrey isn’t convinced. He argues that Wall Street is mistaking a short-term development for a long-term solution. Even if tariffs fade from the headlines, the underlying fragilities in the U.S. economy remain.

In his words, believing that a return to pre-tariff conditions means we’ve sidestepped danger is “dangerously naive.”

De-Dollarization Is Gaining Momentum

One of the most important long-term drivers of gold demand is the global shift away from the U.S. dollar, i.e., de-dollarization.

Maharrey points out that countries are increasingly alarmed by America’s use of the dollar as a foreign policy weapon, particularly after sanctions locked Russia out of the SWIFT system.

Combined with massive U.S. deficits and fiscal mismanagement, this weaponization is prompting central banks to diversify their reserves.

As of late 2024, the dollar’s share of global reserves had dropped to 57.8%—its lowest level since 1994 and down from 72% in 2002.

Meanwhile, gold has overtaken the euro to become the second most-held reserve asset in the world.

Central banks have added more than 1,000 tons of gold to their holdings each year for the past three years. A recent World Gold Council survey found that 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to continue growing, and 43% expect to increase their own holdings in the next 12 months.

This is not theoretical—it’s already happening. And it’s one of the strongest reasons why, despite the mainstream’s pessimism, gold is still in a powerful uptrend.

Inflation Is Still Smoldering

While the Consumer Price Index has cooled, Maharrey urges listeners to look deeper. Monetary inflation—the expansion of the money supply—is once again ramping up.

The M2 money supply, which had contracted during the Fed’s inflation fight, is now rising again. 

As of April, it stood at $21.86 trillion, surpassing its mid-2022 peak and setting a new record.

This monetary fuel, Maharrey warns, will inevitably translate into higher consumer and asset prices. The Fed may have declared victory over inflation, but it’s already cut rates by 100 basis points and is expected to ease further this year.

The root causes of inflation—decades of easy money, trillions in stimulus, and a central bank reluctant to let markets correct—have not been addressed.

As Maharrey puts it, “The victory the Fed is claiming over inflation means more inflation”—because they’re returning to the same policies that caused the problem.

The Recession Risk Is Far From Gone

Wall Street’s current thesis assumes that a trade détente will prevent a downturn, but Maharrey warns that this view is far too narrow.

The U.S. economy is still drowning in debt, inflated asset prices, and years of artificial stimulus. 

The Fed had to start cutting rates and rebooting QE in 2019—well before COVID—because the economy was already faltering. The pandemic merely gave policymakers an excuse to double down.

The boom-bust cycle remains alive and well, and Maharrey says the next bust isn’t a matter of if, but when.

When the inevitable downturn hits, the Fed will revert to the only playbook it knows—slashing rates and printing money.

That will once again devalue the dollar and push investors toward gold and silver.

Storage Costs Are No Excuse

In a real-world example of policy shortsightedness, Idaho Governor Brad Little recently vetoed a bill that would have allowed the state to invest up to 7.5% of its idle funds in physical gold and silver.

Little cited the "cost of storage" as his reason. But Maharrey calls this justification flimsy at best—and deeply misleading.

Storage at Money Metals’ secure Idaho depository costs just 0.49% per year—less than $500 annually to store $100,000 in gold, fully insured.

IRA storage is even lower at 0.29%. By contrast, the cash Idaho currently holds is losing at least 2.4% in purchasing power annually, based on the official CPI—which Maharrey argues understates the true cost of inflation.

Gold, on the other hand, surged 26% in 2024 and is already up another 26% in 2025.

An investigative report revealed that Idaho missed out on more than $200 million in gains this past year simply because it wasn’t allowed to hold gold.

Rejecting sound money over minimal storage fees is, in Maharrey’s words, “financially illiterate.”

Precious Metals Belong in Every Portfolio

Maharrey concludes by urging investors not to let short-term headlines—or shallow institutional analysis—distract them from long-term fundamentals.

Corrections may come, but they’re buying opportunities. Silver, for example, dipped below $36 an ounce this week, and Maharrey believes it remains drastically undervalued.

He reminds listeners that inflation, monetary devaluation, and fiscal recklessness are baked into the system—and real assets like gold and silver are essential defenses.

Storage fees are minimal compared to the loss of purchasing power inflicted by holding cash or paper assets. And despite the current lull, the forces driving the gold bull market are only getting stronger.

In a world ruled by debt, distortion, and devaluation, gold still shines—and the bull market is far from over.

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