Global Depression 101

October 24, 2001

Peter Lynch of the Fidelity Megellan Fund fame needs to reinvent his idea of long term investing. Long Term anything these insane days means 24 to 48 hours. Will Israel enforce its Wednesday deadline with the PLO? Will a suitcase nuke be set off by Friday? Perhaps long term means anthrax laced Halloween candy, a full eleven days out. Yes, eleven days out is long term strategic planning for sure. So if I seem unwilling to make my usual assertions it's because I have absolutely no idea what the global economic, military, spiritual or political situation will be next week, much less in six months to a year. Things are simply happening too fast for anyone to state anything with certainty. Not that it will stop me from offering my opinions, thoughts, rantings, ravings and assorted wit and wisdom to you. It's just that I admit that I have no idea what will happen. Of course, some of you have told me I never did. Thank you. I can always rely on my loyal reader base at to let me know I'm quite fallible. Oh by the way, will the person who sent me an email about my last essay called "Well Done" please resend it since it has vanished into cyberspace and neither Mr. V or myself can find it. I really do read all my e-mail my fans and not so fans send. But please keep the anthrax to yourself, although another name for anthrax is hoof and mouth disease, as in what happened in Britain earlier this year. Anyone catch my drift?

One of the advantages of being a doom and gloomer is that one is mentally prepared for doom and gloom. The other advantage is having been writing about doom and gloom for almost four years now the surprise factor is gone. Granted, I watch with morbid fascination as America and the world goes quite mad over anthrax. You'll excuse me if I don't join the hysteria and fear raging throughout the land. In my professional opinion, as a former Army medic with extensive training in NBC, nuclear, biological and chemical, warfare, what we are seeing is a form of psychological warfare. What we used to call mind games or screwing with your head to disorient a population. Believe me dear readers, there are other dispersal methods(vectors) and other biological agents (VBX, weaponized smallpox and ebola) where we would talking about closing down the House of Representatives for two hundred years. We would we talking about tens of millions of rotting corpses piled high in the streets of abandoned cities a.k.a. medieval style. Yes, biological and chemical warfare are serious threats to the United States and this entire planet; however, the current situation is designed for fear and economic effects. Reread my "Personal Preparations for Y2K" essay from a while back and throw in a gas mask if you want. God knows I've tried to write about the savage times coming upon the world and America in many essays this year. Well, the savage times are here and I would appreciate a little less hysteria and whining in America if you please.

If the American people had been reading instead of listening to the whore press, they would not now be stunned by the economic depression drowning the world. This depression was inevitable, long coming and will be long lasting. The medical term triage refers to setting treatment priorities for injured people in a mass casualty event. What we are now seeing is economic triage on a global scale. This triage is not the movie version where the army medic gives the morphine to the dying soldier to let him die in peace. No, this is the real version where the dying soldier screams until he dies, because the medic only has three morphine vials and needs them to prevent shock in a patient who has a better chance of living. Get real! Entire sectors of our economy are going to be sacrificed on the filthy altar of New World Order corporate socialism. People just don't get what is going to happen on this planet over the next decade.

Here is what I call the McIntosh method of computing the unemployment rate. Take the official, media dispensed number and increase it by 50%. Anyone notice that even though hundreds of thousands of jobs were publicly announced as lost during September, the official unemployment rate stayed at 4.9%? The real rate is 7.5% and headed towards 10% by Christmas. In my earlier essays I talked about the 155,000 fantasy number of job creations. I also talked about how the real productivity numbers were frauds the last few years. Hey,. Mr. Magoo, can you say criminal conspiracy real loud? As America heads into the last part of October the job numbers are depression level. The admitted number of new unemployment claims is 490,000 a week. Yes, Virginia, that's 2 million a month. Sneaky new world order bastards are cutting back hours instead of firing people in many sectors of the economy, namely retail, hospitality and tourism. The sly thing about this is it denies people unemployment and doesn't show up in the official statistics. How many others in America, 1 million, 2 million, 10 million are now working 32, 28 or less hours at the "job" they still have? In my opinion, the combined unemployed, under employed and given up looking for work number is around 12 to 15%. Right now and we aren't in official recession yet.

Except here in Oregon, where the official unemployment rate is 6.2% and the local news media actually used the R word in a headline. True, this headline was in the Saturday paper. I've noticed when the whore media wants to say something, without anyone actually finding out about it, they use the Saturday paper. People read the Monday to Friday daily paper and also the Sunday, but few read the Saturday one. I call it burying the news in plain sight.

Even so, the timing, numbers and devastation of job losses is a daily business news story these days. For instance, the 10-18-01 Airgonian on page C-2 of the Business section lists Louisiana-Pacific selling a pulp mill in Canada and cutting 190 jobs. Regal Cinemas, already in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, plans to close 21 multiplexes, including 3 in Oregon. United Airline stock falls 10% after CEO warning. Truck Axle Maker, Dana corporation will cut 11, 250 jobs and sell leasing unit. Merrill Lynch may cut as many as 10,000 jobs. Sprint plans to lay off 7% of its employees, 6,000 people. Ford reports third quarter loss after new strategy. The main stories on the page are headlined, "Boeing rumors circle Puget Sound" and my personal favorite, "GreenSpan talk withers hopes." There is perhaps some justice eh Mr. V? The other article is about anthrax and its effect on the mail system. On this entire page the only positive economic news was a 1.7% increase in September for new home construction, although the news blip cautions that no one knows what the future holds. Amen, brother.

The October 15th Airgonian tells us insiders are using the bankruptcy process to screw their creditors and investors. Gee, both Mr. V and moi are appalled. A separate article tells us the SEC notes the New York Stock Exchange officials didn't supervise brokers and allowed "floor brokers to profit illegally by sharing in customer's gains." Hmm, I wonder what customers have had any gains to be shared in, illegally or not? The October 16th Airgonian Business section tells us about the collapse of Bethlehem Steel, another story on how mail room security is being upgraded, a story about how Indonesian Muslim unrest may affect apparel production and the wave of lawsuits against a local company which lost 300 million dollars in Union Pension funds through fraud and corruption. United Airlines reports it that now has 27% fewer aircraft departures than on September 11th. Boeing has suspended work on a new long range plane and Unisys will cut 3,000 workers. Other than that, all is fine on the economic front.

Speaking of Ford Motor company, several essays ago I wrote in detail about how, once the economy slowed, they would be in danger of collapse due to heavy debt loads. Let's see here, in the third quarter Ford lost $692 million due to production cuts and zero interest financing. Sales declined 9% and additional "moves to reorganize" will come in December. 5,000 salaried jobs have been slated to be reorganized out of existence by December 31st, so I assume Ford means more job losses are on the way. The whore media has been crowing about people actually buying cars as their patriotic duty. I think the zero financing has more to do with it than patriotism; however, the economic issue is car companies can't make money on their cars and trucks. No corporate profit means stock collapse. No corporate profit means debt service problems. Are you following my thought train here brothers and sisters? Is it beginning to dawn on you what I wrote about months ago is now coming to pass? Yo, Mr. Magoo, let's have a bankruptcy party for America. Corporations, individuals, governments, state, local and federal, are all invited to attend.

I don't plan to be there Mr. Magoo. I'll be home counting my few gold coins and checking the status of my Y2k supplies. The savage times are upon us. Take care. Prepare the best way you know how and enjoy life day to day. Pet a dog or cat. Tell your girlfriend, spouse and/or children you love them even when they are not very lovable. Eat well and ponder spiritual matters deeply. Robert Burns once wrote "the greatest gift is to see ourselves as others see us." Too bad America learned that one the hard way on September 11th. Live honorably and if required, die well.

One ounce of gold is so ductile it can be drawn into a wire 50 miles long

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