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Gold And GDX Intermediate Cycle Update

January 14, 2018

Both Gold and GDX surged to a new high on Friday, shifting the odds towards a right translated Trading Cycle #1 (TC1).  This is not surprising as the first TC of any new Intermediate Cycle never fails by making a lower low.  If it does then then by definition it’s still part of the previous Intermediate Cycle. My normal TC timing band for Gold is 20-29 days but the first Trading Cycle out of a YCL typically runs towards the longer end.

We have now also completed week 4 (Month one) out of Gold’s YCL and even during the long Bear, uptrend moves out of a YCL have never been shorter than a couple of months so my expectations are that after TCL/DCL #1, Gold and the Miners will move higher still.

Normally I hold positions through TCL #1 but I may take profits on all or partial positions if I can get the price and time action correctly.  Remember that Cycles work best measuring low to low from a Time perspective and they are far less helpful picking a top so I will be using other TA clues so stay tuned.



Surf City is a pseudonym for a 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.   He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55. In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market analysis.  Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.”  Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.

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