Gold And GDX Intermediate Cycle Update

January 14, 2018

Both Gold and GDX surged to a new high on Friday, shifting the odds towards a right translated Trading Cycle #1 (TC1).  This is not surprising as the first TC of any new Intermediate Cycle never fails by making a lower low.  If it does then then by definition it’s still part of the previous Intermediate Cycle. My normal TC timing band for Gold is 20-29 days but the first Trading Cycle out of a YCL typically runs towards the longer end.

We have now also completed week 4 (Month one) out of Gold’s YCL and even during the long Bear, uptrend moves out of a YCL have never been shorter than a couple of months so my expectations are that after TCL/DCL #1, Gold and the Miners will move higher still.

Normally I hold positions through TCL #1 but I may take profits on all or partial positions if I can get the price and time action correctly.  Remember that Cycles work best measuring low to low from a Time perspective and they are far less helpful picking a top so I will be using other TA clues so stay tuned.

 

*********  

Surf City is a pseudonym for a 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.   He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55. In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market analysis.  Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.”  Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.

The world’s gold supply increases by 2,600 tons per year versus the U.S. steel production of 11,000 tons per hour.