Gold Price Forecast: Gold's Mid-Term Cyclical Picture

Chief Analyst & Editor @ Goldwavetrader
September 11, 2022

Recapping Last week

Last week's trading saw Gold forming its low in Wednesday's session, here doing so with the tag of the 1701.70 figure. From there, a decent rally was seen into late-week, with the metal pushing all the way up to a Friday high of 1740.50 - before backing off the same into the daily/weekly close.

Gold Market, Short-Term

From the comments made in recent articles, Gold has been looking for a rally - with the last short-term correction having come as a result of the 10, 20 and 34-day cycles that we track. The chart below shows the smallest of these waves, the 10-day cycle:

With the recent action, the upward phase of at least this 10-day wave has been in force off the early-September low, though more telling action will come from the larger two cycles, the 20 and 34-day waves, with the larger 34-day shown below:

From the comments made in past articles, back in August we were looking for a key short-term peak to form in the Gold market, with resistance to the move noted at the 1824-1833 region, and with the actual peaking coming in at the 1824.60 figure. From that high - into the most recent low - the metal fell some 125 points, or approximately 6.8% from peak-to-trough.

With the above said and noted, whether the bottom for the 34-day cycle is yet in place is still speculation at this point, with the detrend that tracks this wave projecting its low in the current timeframe - but with price still holding the short-term (price) action inside our 34-day cycle channel.

Once the low for this wave is complete, we are expecting a decent rally playing out into later this month, though a move which is now assumed to end up as countertrend, due to the configuration of our next larger wave, the 72-day component:

With the overall action, the probabilities favor the downward phase of this 72-day cycle to be in force, off the left-translated peak made back in mid-August. With that, as noted, the probabilities tend to favor any short-term rally with the smaller 10, 20 and 34-day cycles to end up as countertrend.

Stepping back further, a countertrend peak made later this month would be expected to give way to weakness again - and lower lows for the swing - into mid-October, where our 72-day component is next projected to trough. That low is also expected to end up as our next mid-term bottom, coming from the larger 310-day wave.

Gold's, Mid-Term Picture

For the mid-term picture, as mentioned in past articles, the next bottom of significance is expected to come from the combination of 72 and 310-day cycles - with the larger 310-day cycle shown again on the chart below:

In terms of time, this 310-day cycle is next projected to trough around mid-to-late October, which is right into the overall range where our next 72-day low is due. From whatever bottom that does form these waves, the probabilities will favor a sharp rally of some 20-25% or more playing out in the months to follow - with the upper 310 cycle band acting as the magnet.

In terms of time, the next mid-term rally phase - once in force - would favored to take Gold higher overall into the late-Spring of next year, before setting up for another sharp decline into the following 310-day cycle bottom, due into the late-2023 to early-2024 timeframe. More on all as we continue to move forward.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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Jim Curry became involved in the markets as an investor in 1988. In the early 1990's he stumbled upon a book/methodology that would change the way he looked at the markets forever. That book was J.M. Hurst's the Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. Hurst's concepts seemed to make perfect sense to Jim, and he has spent the years since coming up with his own cycle/technical analysis methodology.

In 1998 Jim put his cyclic methods to the test by entering the Etrade national options-trading competition, twice (his only two entries ever into the competition). In the first contest he finished in the top 10 out of over 150,000 entrants; in the second entry into the same contest, he just narrowly missed finishing in first place - over quadrupling a $100,000 account in the contest's short time span.

What you are seeing when you view my market reports is a collection of over 30-years of experience in both numeric analysis and spectral methods - and in actually trading the methodology for myself and for the subscribers of my Gold Wave Trader (which covers Gold) and Market Turns (covering U.S. stocks) reports.

You can visit his websites at: http://goldwavetrader.com/ and http://cyclewave.homestead.com/


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