Market News Report: February 3, 2020 - February 7, 2020

February 3, 2020

Last week’s economic data releases have been dimmed by China virus crisis intensity on Friday, but there was an increase in volatility following Wednesday’s FOMC and the important quarterly earnings releases on Tuesday and Thursday. This week we will have Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls number. But there’ll be more interesting economic news releases. Let’s take a look at the details.

The week behind

The financial markets have been focusing on series of economic data releases last week. Wednesday’s FOMC Monetary Policy Statement has been the most important one and the markets went risk-off after the release, as stocks sold off and gold rallied. But then Thursday’s Advance GDP number release along with much-better-than-expected quarterly earnings announcement from Amazon reversed the sentiment once again. Not for long though. On Friday, stock markets plunged and gold rallied following increasing China virus fears.

Let’s take a look at the one-hour chart of gold price. The market has begun rallying exactly at the time of last Wednesday’s FOMC Monetary Policy Statement release. So, the data brought a lot of short-term volatility, as price accelerated its uptrend following downward correction. Last week, we wrote that it would be a market mover, and it surely was.

The week ahead

What about the coming week? The markets will await Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate releases. On Monday and Wednesday the PMI numbers will be released. The ECB President Lagarde will speak on Wednesday and Thursday and it will likely move the EUR/USD currency pair. There will also be some pretty important economic data releases in Australia on Monday and in Canada on Friday. Investors will continue to react to quarterly earnings releases. Let’s take a look at key highlights:

  • Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls number along with the Unemployment Rate will be the most important economic data release this week.
  • On Monday we will get the ISM Manufacturing PMI and on Wednesday we will get the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
  • On Wednesday and Thursday the ECB President Lagarde will speak.
  • On Monday there will also be the important RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate release in Australia, and on Friday the Employment Change along with the Unemployment Rate will be released in Canada.
  • Last but not the least, we will get more important quarterly earnings releases this week, including Monday’s after-hours report release from GOOG.

Let’s focus on the Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls number release. Where would the price of gold go following that news release? We’ve compiled the data since January of 2017, a 36-month-long period of time that contains of thirty seven NFP releases. The following chart shows that gold price was slightly gaining following the release. However, it was retracing its short-term advance around 10 days after the release. Additionally, the biggest advance after the NFP day was +5.06% and the biggest decline was -3.82%.

You will find this week’s the key news releases below (EST time zone). For your convenience, we broken them down per market to which they are particularly important, so that you know what to pay extra attention to, if you have or plan to have positions in one of them. Moreover, we put the particularly important news in bold. This kind of news is what is more likely to trigger volatile movements. The news that are not in bold usually don’t result in bigger intraday moves, so unless one is engaging in a particularly active form of day trading it might be best to focus on the news that we put in bold. Of course, you are free to use the below indications as you see fit. As far as we are concerned, we are usually not engaging in any day trading during days with “bold” events on a given market. However, in case of more medium-term trades, we usually choose to be aware of the increased intraday volatility, but not change the currently opened position.

Our Market News Report consists of two different time-related perspectives. The investors’ perspective is only suitable for the long-term investments. The single economic data releases rarely cause major outlook changes. Hence, we will only see a handful of bold markings every week. On the other hand, the traders’ perspective is for traders and day-traders, because the assets’ prices are likely to react on a single piece of economic data. So, there will be a lot more bold markings on potentially market-moving news every week.

Investors’ Perspective

Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks

Monday, February 3

  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, February 4

  • 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI

Wednesday, February 5

  • 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Friday, February 7

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

Crude Oil

Monday, February 3

  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:30 p.m. Australia - RBA Rate Statement, Cash Rate

Tuesday, February 4

  • 4:30 p.m. U.S. - API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI

Wednesday, February 5

  • 8:30 a.m. Canada - Trade Balance
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:30 a.m. U.S. - Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, February 6

  • 7:30 p.m. Australia - RBA Monetary Policy Statement
  • 10:00 p.m. China - Trade Balance, USD-Denominated Trade Balance

Friday, February 7

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada - Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

Sock Markets

Monday, February 3

  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m
  • After Close U.S. - GOOG Quarterly Earnings

Tuesday, February 4

  • After Close U.S. - CMG, DIS, GILD Quarterly Earnings
  • 8:45 p.m. China - Caixin Services PMI

Wednesday, February 5

  • 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Friday, February 7

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

EUR/USD

Monday, February 3

  • 3:55 a.m. Eurozone - German Final Manufacturing PMI
  • 4:00 a.m. Eurozone - Final Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 1:15 p.m. Eurozone - German Buba President Weidmann Speech

Wednesday, February 5

  • 3:55 a.m. Eurozone - German Final Services PMI
  • 4:00 a.m. Eurozone - Final Services PMI
  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone - Retail Sales m/m
  • 7:15 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 8:15 a.m. U.S. - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Thursday, February 6

  • 3:00 a.m. Eurozone - ECB President Lagarde Speech
  • 5:00 a.m. Eurozone - EU Economic Forecasts

Friday, February 7

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today's Market News Report - this analysis' full version. The full Alert includes also the Traders’ Perspective which is very useful for the people who trade within shorter time frames. There's no risk in subscribing right away, because there's a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

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Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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Paul Rejczak is a stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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