Stage Analysis For Gold Price And USD

July 11, 2017

This post will use Weinstein’s Stage Analysis to examine where we are in both Gold and the USD. For this analysis, I will use Weekly charts and highlight the Weekly 30ema as a guidepost for our analysis.

First let’s start with a bit of History and go back to 1998 to 2002 to examine the transition in Gold and the HUI from Stage 4 Bear, to Stage 1 Basing to Stage 2 Bull Market.

Fast forward to today and we can see that the 30ema seems to have found a bottom but in 2017, it seems to be a midpoint for price and is not yet providing strong support at major lows for either Gold or GDX.  My last chart on GDX shows a potential Fractal.  Will history repeat?  Time will Tell.

My last chart is on the USD.  If the USD is close to finding a Yearly Cycle Low (YCL), the 30ema should still continue to provide resistance near Intermediate Cycle Tops if the USD’s 15 Year SuperCycle has topped.


Surf City is a pseudonym for a 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.   He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55. In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market analysis.  Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.”  Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.

Gold is one of the most recycled substances in the world.