Technical Analysis Of The Markets

March 22, 2016

Gold

Short-Term Update:

Our 1241.30 low has held in the overnight session, and for the time being we are assuming that is the end of all of wave !ii! of ^v^. In the overnight session gold was higher and reached 1260.80.

We still cannot rule the possibility that wave !ii! is going to become more complex, and in that case we would then revisit the 1241.30 low one more time to then complete all of wave !ii!.

A break now above the wave !i! high of 1271.80, would confirmation that all of wave !ii! is complete at the 1241.30 low and that we are heading sharply higher in wave !iii! of ^v^, as the next big event in this market.

In fact, a break now above the overnight high of 1260.80 would probably indicate that all of wave !ii! is complete at the 1241.30 low.

Our current updated count for all of wave ^v^ is:

!i! = 1271.80;

!ii!:

$a$ = 1256.50;

$b$ = 1267.60;

$c$ = 1241.30, if complete to complete all of wave !ii!.

!iii! rally is next after wave !ii! ends.

Projections for the end of wave !ii! are:

$c$ = 1.618$a$ = 1242.80: Reached!

Wave !ii! is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the wave !i! rally. Those values are:

50% = 1249.20;

61.8% = 1243.80: Reached!

There is still an outside chance that we are still working on a complex wave ^iv^ correction also.

Our updated count for wave (3) of 3 is as follows:

*i* = 1088.30

*ii* = 1046.80;

*iii*:

^i^ = 1081.40;

^ii^ = 1056.60;

^iii^:

!i! = 1113.10;

!ii! = 1071.10;

!iii! =1263.40, 1262.90(Daily Continuous Futures);

!iv! triangle =1225.30;

!v!= 1280.70, to complete all of wave ^iii^.

^iv^ = 1226.50;

^v^ rally is now underway, to complete all of wave *iii*.

*iv* correction will be next, after wave *iii* ends. 

Longer-Term Update

Based on the current count, gold is still working on its first impulsive sequence out of its wave (2) of 3 low, and we still have a long way to go before this sequence is complete.

We are now working on our wave ^v^ rally, which when complete will complete all of wave *iii*. The wave *iv* correction should retrace between 23.6 and 38.2% of the entire wave *iii* rally.

Projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

*iii* = 6.25*i* = 1314.90.

Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1085.00!

Crude

Short-Term Update:

Crude is starting to struggle a bit, as it is trying to get above the previous high of 41.78.  In the overnight session, we reached a high of 41.77., at the time that this Post was being written.

Crude has now rallied about 60% off its 26.05 low, without a major correction. We believe that we are getting very close now to the end of our first impulsive wave sequence out of the 26.05 low, and that a 50 to 61.8% corrective looking retracement is going to be next big event in this market.

We are not sure how to label this first impulsive rally, but let’s wait until it is complete and we will deal with that at that time. When we are sure that our first impulsive sequence is complete we will provide those retracement levels, and likely a buy order.

Suncor should be getting close to completing wave -i- of c of B, every soon also, and we expect a 50 to 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from the 18.71 low to be the next big event in this market.

Long-Term Update:

 

We cannot rule the possibility that a major low in wave b of B was reached at the 26.05 low. If this assumption is correct, then crude is now heading sharply higher, at least back to the all-time high of 147.27.

Active Trading Positions: We will go long at the end of wave  -ii-!

S&P500

Short-Term Update:

The S&P Futures are lower by about 7 points at the time that this Post was being written.  We still have higher to go in wave -iii-.

Our projected target for the end of wave -iii- is:

-iii- = 1.618-i- = 2112.02

Upon completion of wave -iii-, we should expect a wave -iv- correction that retraces between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entire wave -iii- rally.

Long-Term Update

Wave -i- of (v) is complete at the 1946.70 high, and wave -ii- at 1891.00. We should now be heading to our second projected target for the end of wave -iii- and once that wave is complete, we should expect a drop in wave -iv-. Our minimum target for the end of wave (v) is the all-time high of 2134.72.

Active Trading Positions: Flat!

USDX

Short-Term Update

The USDX rallied to 95.73, in the overnight session, at the time that this Post was being written.

We can now conclude that all of wave !iii! ended at the 94.67 low and that the current rally is wave !iv!.  Retracements for the end of wave !iv! are:

38.2% = 95.56

50% = 95.85.

We would not want to see wave !iv! retrace above the 50% level of 95.85, and under no circumstances can it overlap with the wave !i! low of 95.99, otherwise our current short term analysis will be eliminated.

Our updated count for all of wave *iii* is:

^i^ = 97.03;

^ii^ = 98.42;

^iii^:

!i! = 95.94;

!ii! =97.09,:

!iii! = 94.61;

!iv! = 95.73, if complete;

!v! drop is next, to complete all of wave ^iii^. Our minimum target for the end of wave !v! is the wave !iii! low of 94.61.

Projections for the end of wave ^iii^ are:

^iii^= 2.618^i^ = 94.36.

^iii^= 4.236^i^ = 91.83.

Projections for the end of wave *iii* are:

*iii*= 1.618*i*=91.03;

*iii*= 2.618*i* = 86.36

Our current count for wave -c- is:

.i. = 97.59;

.ii. = 99.95

.iii.:

*i*:

^i^ = 98.45;

^ii^ = 99.88;

^iii^ = 96.04;

^iv^ = 97.50:

^v^ = 95.28, to complete all of wave *i*;

*ii* = 98.59;

*iii* is now underway, and likely subdividing, as shown above.

We have the following projections of all of the wave .iii. drop:

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 94.53;

.iii. -= 2.618.i. = 91.18;

.iii. = 4.236 i = 85.76.

Long-Term Trading Update

We should be falling sharply in wave .iii. in the next couple of weeks or months. Within wave .iii., we are now falling in wave *iii*, with wave *ii* ending at 98.59.

Active Trading Positions: We are short at 97.90, risking to 96.00!

HUI/GDX and Selected Gold Stocks

Short-Term Update

With gold being up, the GDX and all of our selected gold stocks are up also. 

GDX

As you can see on the attached 60 Min GDX Chart, we are now thrusting higher in wave -v- of (iii). At the moment it looks like wave .i. of -v- ended at 21.42.

We are expecting that the current drop is wave .ii. however, even with today’s low of 20.31, we are still a little bit short our 50% retracement level which is 20.14. Once wave .ii. is complete we should rally sharply higher in wave .iii..

We note that the corresponding wave (iii) high in the GDX is likely going to match our wave *iii* high in gold, so we appear to have very good alignment here!

SSO

We are working on the assumption that all of wave .a. of *ii* ended at the 6.94 low and that we are now rallying in wave .b. of wave *ii*. Retracement values for wave .b. are:

50% = 8.32;

61.8% = 8.65.

Upon completion of wave .b., we expect one more drop in wave .c. to complete all of wave *ii*. Wave .c. is expect to at least reach the wave .a. low of 6.94.

The attached Daily SSO Chart does show our retracement values for all of wave *ii*, with the 6.94 low does satisfy, so it could be possible that all of wave *ii* is complete at the 6.94 low, NOT just wave .a. of *ii*.

If that is the case then SSO is heading sharply higher in wave *iii*.   

ABX

We have attached the 120 Min Chart. We are waiting for confirmation that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the slightly lower low of 14.54. If wave ^ii^ of .i. is complete at the 14.54 low, then we should expect a sharp rally in wave ^iii^, as the next big event.

We note that our current count for wave (v) is very aggressive, as the triangle formation was very large. Our less aggressive count for wave (v) would be that all of wave .i. ended at the 15.50 high and all or most of wave .ii. at the 14.56 low. In this case the next big event will be a sharp rally in wave .iii. of (v)!

Long-Term Update

The GDX and all of our selected stocks/indices have finally completed their respective wave B lows. We are still expecting higher prices, as we complete our first impulsive sequence out of their respective wave B lows.

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

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In every cubic mile of sea water there is 25 tons of gold