The Two Words I Thought I would Never Write About

NOTE- In “real life”, whatever that is- I tend to be a very optimistic person.  Yet, I grew up around others who lived in a different time when things were not so great.  These loved ones taught me to always look at the “down side”, first, to always evaluate “risk” before considering potential reward.”  “Knowing  your downside, first,” helps to keep you  well grounded in life.  That is what this writing is about.  After this writ, I will start to develop the HUGE POSITIVE POTENTIALS for the Precious Metals and for the Precious Metals Stocks.”

For the last several weeks, with events happening in the world that I thought I would never see in my lifetime- I have had the luxury to spend a lot of time with my grandchildren.  Knowing that the time was ripe for Gold, Silver, and the Precious Metals stocks to start their ramp-up into the final grand Vth Wave run, I have spent late nights working up Precious Metals related charts.  Using my usual angled line chart formations along with the historic Fractal Relationships on the charts- price targets potentials for the PM Sector on the upside are just “crazy high.”

THE GOLD-EAGLE FORUM AND GOLD

Back in 2005, when Dr. Vronsky convinced me to write publicly while I was posting on the “old Gold-Eagle Forum”, I had targets for gold to eventually rise up into the $10,000 range by the end of this cycle.  A bit later in my chart work, I raised my expectations for gold to rise higher in the cycle- up to $12,500.  Yet, the Dollar printing has been high enough that the Gold Chart suggested much higher pricing. 

I have a group of very intelligent and “old friends” that I share my work with- some from all the way back on the Gold-Eagle Forum, around the year2002- some from my “real life”, including my best friend from around 5 years-old, and of course, Lorimer, who used to edit and post my public articles.

During this time period, I realized that the angled line method that I use to anticipate future pricing had never really been tested.  This lack of “testing” would have never gotten by Half Monty, the guy who forced me to learn so much posting back on the Gold-Eagle Forum back in the day.  So, I immediately decided to use the gold rise up into the 1980 high for gold as a method to check my “future pricing method.”  Low and behold, the 1980 final price left my “angled line pricing technique “short by 50%” of the potential price high for gold that I expected into the eventual coming top.

This difference provides a potential much higher price for gold than the $12,500 eventual target.  In fact, it even provides a potential final gold price spike high, higher than $20,000.  I don’t know what method Mr. Lassonde from Franco Nevada used in his potential projection for $20,000 Dollar gold, but I was very happy to see him post it since I felt like less of an idiot.

About the same time that Mr. Lasssonde posted the potential for gold to rise up to $20,000, I became aware of an article by Egon von Greyerz saying that Dollar devaluation since 1981 suggests $20,000 gold.  I am not sure when he wrote that piece because I don’t often read articles on the PM Sector, anymore, feeling comfortable with my own work

THE “TWO WORDS” I THOUGHT I WOULD NEVER SAY, OR WRITE

Tonight, I spent several hours Googling, and then perusing through, a slew of different PM-related charts.  I love to do that when I have time, and I often learn something new each time.  I saved about a dozen Precious Metals related chart to peruse through when I find time.

After that, I checked my e-mails and found one from a long-time friend from back on the good old Gold-Eagle Forum days- Deadeye.  He was responding to an earlier swap of e-mails with me about the “virus.”  His final words in the e-mail were “at the expense of millions of working people being made poorer and bankrupt!”

And suddenly those “two words”; my throat tightened, tears came to my eyes, and brought “THE TWO WORDS TO MY MIND”…………………..DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION.

I finally “got it”, and it slammed home like a sledge hammer to the head.

“RISK”

I had, just an hour before, finished going through a slew of charts.  I knew that the rise in the DJIA had recently risen much higher than the fractal work off of the chart of the 70’s had suggested.  I was well aware that the recent top for the DJIA took more time for that rise to complete.  But, I had also just browsed through lots of charts, and one of those that really stuck out had been the fact that everything about recent top for the DJIA seemed to fit with a potential MAJOR TOP- similar to the 1929 DJIA top on that chart walk.     In fact, the sharp fall of the DJIA, didn’t just fall- the fall took the DJIA all the way through the myriad of moving averages I use- “THE MOVING AVERAGE RIBBON.”  THAT is a hell of a fall.

Thus, the DJIA had been driven up much higher than into the 1979 period, had been held up longer, and then instead of “trading down’-it had technically “CRASHED”, very much like 1929.

Oil had traded much like the late 70’s fractal work, until it had traded down and then crashed.  With nobody driving around very much- with little truck traffic- with no storage space left to store more oil………….  This is a major, major deflationary event!

So many people living paycheck to paycheck!  No known way for the economies to logically recover quickly.  The government is in the process of massive printing to shore everybody and everything up.  Yet, the last thing on my mind was a DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION.  Why had I not at least thought of that possibility?  To my credit, I had suggested to the group that with all of the printing going on, I would not be surprised if sometime after gold rises to cover all of the Dollar printing that we might see a new world RESERVE CURRENCY ANNOUNCED.  Yet, everybody, everywhere, is probably printing paper currency out the “wazzoo”.

PRECIOUS METALS STOCKS?

As I said, I don’t spend much time reading what all is written “out there” because I just tend to stick to my knitting.  Yet, I have not seen a big move for writers to hammer on the need to hold physical gold and Silver.  Obviously, the Precious Metals companies who mine gold and silver will fair, well, and the explorers who own ounces in the ground will do extremely well, too…………….unless……..

After all, “The Street” has this crazy rule that gold and silver ounces in the ground will not be re-valued higher until the last high has been re-tested.  I think we are “there”, but a lag in time can still take place.

So, what do YOU THINK?  After-all, we are all in this together…..world -wide.  INFLATIONARY DEPRESSION?

GOLDRUNNER

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Please understand that the above is just the opinion of a small fish in a large sea.  None of the above is intended as investment advice, but merely an opinion of the potential of what might be.  Simply put: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.  In the interest of full disclosure, GOLDRUNNER is personally invested in the Precious Metals sector including various Precious Metals and other individual stocks.  GOLDRUNNER reserves the right to modify or eliminate any or all positions at any point in time.

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