Critical metals and Canada will play a key role in the evolving global economy
NEW YORK (June 11) Geopolitical uncertainty remains at extreme levels, driving demand for safe-haven assets. However, a panel of economists and market analysts is not yet ready to give up on globalization, as they argue that the critical metals sector could introduce some stability into the global economy.
At the 2025 International Economic Forum of the Americas in Montreal, Quebec, Philippe Bourbeau, Co-Director of the International Institute of Economic Diplomacy and Professor at HEC Montréal, said that developing a reliable supply of critical metals may be the most important issue the world will face in the coming years.
While economic uncertainty—stemming from President Donald Trump’s global tariffs and the ongoing trade war—is impacting global growth and the development of a critical metals supply chain, the panel largely agreed that demand remains a long-term driver that will transcend short-term noise and volatility.
Paul Gruenwald, Global Chief Economist at S&P Global, pointed to several factors that have triggered a fundamental shift in the global economy. The first is the ongoing evolution of the AI sector and the growing need for more data centers and the energy required to support this new high-tech economy.
Another driver of this economic transformation is the green energy transition, which is becoming increasingly cost-effective compared to carbon-based fuels.
“We have to figure out the final constellation of tariffs, and we have to figure out how the Americans and Chinese get along, but there are a bunch of tailwinds here, and we have to be cognizant that there are a lot of investment opportunities,” said Gruenwald.
Grégoire Baillargeon, Vice Chair of BMO Capital Markets, said that the growing demand for critical metals offers a way to bring allies back to the table. While globalization may no longer look the same as it did before the COVID-19 pandemic, nations can’t afford to retreat into isolation.
“We have global issues now—whether it’s global warming, biodiversity, plastics, or water. We need to start looking at the future with a clearer lens. These are global problems that require global solutions,” said Baillargeon. “No one has all the critical minerals in their backyard, so we'll need to work together.”
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Although globalization trends have slowed, the panel noted that increasing demand for critical metals has highlighted the need for a diversified global supply chain.
Ulric Adom, Chief Financial Officer of Aluminum at Rio Tinto, said that China currently dominates the critical metals space because it has spent years investing in domestic production. He added that Western nations now face important decisions as they attempt to catch up.
“It’s a messy business, and there’s a reason why China controls most of the rare earths processing in the world,” Adom said. “Now that the Western world is waking up to this, we’re saying, ‘We need a secure supply.’ But it’s going to take time, and it’s going to require some tough choices. You need to process a huge amount of material, it requires an enormous amount of energy, and the output is a very small quantity. It’s actually not very economical. So I think society is going to have to make some difficult decisions to ensure supply security.”
Baillargeon noted that China currently controls 60% to 90% of refining capacity for certain critical metals.
As the world continues to seek reliable sources of critical metals, Perry Ing, Chief Financial Officer of McEwen Mining, said that Canada is in a strong position to lead.
“We have enormous geological endowments of many of the critical minerals being discussed,” he said. “And not only that, we have the human capital to develop these resources.”
Within Canada, Quebec is particularly well-positioned to lead in critical minerals. In a presentation at the conference, Maïté Blanchette Vézina, Quebec’s Minister of Natural Resources, said that the province contains 25 of the 40 critical minerals needed by the U.S. and Europe.
She noted that Quebec is a leading producer of scandium oxide, niobium, and graphite, and also produces lithium, copper, nickel, and other important industrial metals.
“So when I tell you that we have great potential, it’s not an exaggeration,” said Vézina.
Although import tariffs and retaliatory measures have strained relations between Canada and the U.S., Vézina emphasized that America remains a critical trading partner for both Canada and Quebec.
“Our economies are interconnected, and our supply chains are essentially integrated. We will therefore work to maintain a partnership that is beneficial for all—in the best interest of Quebec businesses and communities,” she said.
While Canada and Quebec have opportunities to play leadership roles in the evolving global economy, the panel emphasized that the development of critical metals will require government support.
As Adom noted, it has not been economically viable to develop and process many of these critical minerals. Ing agreed, saying the industry can’t rely entirely on free-market dynamics.
“We can’t rely 100% on free markets and let supply and demand dictate the price,” he said. “China is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, and its supply is often opaque—especially in the more obscure metals. There might need to be price supports, long-term agreements, and other measures to help the industry. I think at the end of the day, common sense will prevail. We need to step away from dependence on China in this market.”
