Gold Editorials & Commentary

GLD - on sell signal.

Around this point in the fractal cycle in the late 70's, Gold busted out of its channel to rise sharply higher, along with Silver. Silver's channel top will lie up around $68 to $70 over the coming months which we believe will be reached in 2012.

A very important objective change has taken place in the gold market. Its price is not moving above the resistance established in the 1600 to 1900 wide berth range. Its price is not moving below support in the same wide permitted range.

In our 19th March commentary, we wrote:

All in all it was a pretty quiet week in the US markets long with precious metals while we saw a huge and swift drop in terms of US bonds this past week which is not something we see everyday but markets seem to be digesting that news rather well.

GLD - on sell signal.

Gold is forming its second bear box since last September. So what does that mean?

Ben Bernanke's smiling face on the cover of the April issue of The Atlantic is a testimony to how short America's collective memory is.

The beleaguered gold stocks have spiraled lower this month, heaping misery on poor fools like me naive enough to invest in them. Dwindling interest and capital has left this realm a desolate wasteland, I've rarely seen anything so deeply out of favor.

Gold and silver have been in corrections since they both had exceptional rally phases that topped out last year. Gold topped out with a double top, one high in August and the other high in September.

Recently, I read an article about how Congo born, Dikembe Mutombo, an all-star NBA defender, was nicely scammed in a fake gold deal.

Gold and silver are very close to entering the mania phase of this bull market. In order for gold and silver to go into the mania phase, value has to be diverted from somewhere, and that "somewhere" is most likely stocks.

Recently, I read an article about how Congo born, Dikembe Mutombo, an all-star NBA defender, was nicely scammed in a fake gold deal.

This week may provide some trading opportunities for us if all goes well now that most traders are investors are all giddy about stocks again.

It was another strong week for US markets that is set to power many stocks higher soon. I've rarely seen so many great setups for swing trading in the leading stocks and we are and will be taking advantage of that in the week ahead.

GLD - on sell signal.

The world's stock markets are increasingly interrelated. The psychology of traders, which drives most short-term price action, is continuously shaped by the nonstop torrents of global newsflow.

This week's downside breakout in the T-Bond futures market and the associated rise in the T-Bond yield has prompted us to re-visit the relationship between gold and interest rates.

Lost amid the hoopla after the Dow recently achieved a milestone in closing above the psychologically important 13,000 barrier is another, more significant benchmark. Gasoline prices hit a record seasonal high this week.

Just when we think that Bernanke has exhausted his ability to come up with harebrained schemes to distort prices, he proves us wrong. Last week it was reported that the Fed was considering a new way of putting downward pressure on long-term interest rates.

In this report I want to focus on just some simple but effect indicators such as moving averages and Fibonacci retracements. The first chart shows some daily moving averages that have come into play at some point in the bull market.

GLD - on sell signal.

Scattered diverse and almost uniformly unfavorable and dangerous events are unfolding, as the global economy and financial structure undergoes the equivalent of endless earthquakes and bombardment of solar emissions.

With Iran waxing belligerent again, oil has been making headlines lately. Stock speculators and investors are anxiously watching its price, gaming how oil stocks are likely to react to various oil-price scenarios.

"Is the Fed a Failure?" is the title of an article by Gene Epstein in the 27th February edition of Barrons magazine. The article draws on the work of economist George Selgin to argue that the answer to the question is yes, the Fed is a failure.

"By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens" -- John Maynard Keynes

The HUI has been in a bull market since the very end of 2000 and has created one bullish chart pattern after another. On the chart below you can see all these beautiful pit stops or resting periods, in red, before the next leg up could begin.

There can be no doubt that the stock market is moving on to a new phase in its bull market. No kidding, that's all that CNBC talked about this week.

There is a lot of cycle evidence that suggests a top is coming in March 2012. How significant a top is hard to say, but the odds are the coming decline will be at least in the 10 percent area.