Gold Editorials & Commentary

Bernanke has the whole world trapped in his QE box. The local banks pay nothing on deposits, neither does Uncle Sam. No risk, no return, say the central-bankers-cum-central-planners. The economy lacks aggregate demand according to the head Keynesian (an oxymoron)...

If you weren’t paying close attention, 2013 might have gone down as a quasi-normal year. After all, the Dow Jones ‘Industrials’ (sic) hit 50 some new record highs, mostly in the latter half of the year. The NASDAQ went above 4,000 again (can anyone say 1999?), and...

To a lot of people a country with large foreign reserves is equivalent to a strong country. In a way it is true because a country can only accumulate foreign reserves when it is running a budget surplus. Having large foreign reserves has its advantages like enabling...

Markets were pretty quiet as would be expected until Thursday when we saw a nice down day on stronger volume. This is fine so far and the trend remains solidly in the upwards direction. Dips are still to be bought until it stops working. Keep it simple and it...

China represents the East, as its insatiable demand for buying physical gold continues unabated, while in the West, the elite’s central banks have pretty much depleted their physical holdings. In the war for gold, both are still winning, but for vastly different...

Long term – on major sell signal since Mar 2012. Short term – on buy signals. Gold sector cycle – up as of 12/27. COT data is now favorable for a bear market rally.

The chart for USO (U.S. Oil Fund) has been confusing for some time. Most recently USO rallied sharply from its November low, only to drop sharply from its December high, taking back nearly all of the gains. Typical action over the last year is that sharp price...

The long-term investor pattern is one of not buying into bull markets until very late in their uptrend, after they have already made great gains, and then buying enthusiastically. The similar shorter-term pattern is at the end of each year to review ‘Top 25 Mutual...

Chart Analysis, Gold, Silver, Gold BOs and Metals’ Ratio BOs via videos.

The Gold Universe (shares and gold price) looks like it "may" be about to reverse the bear trend in which it has been trapped for some time. Should this happen, the evidence suggests that fear for the integrity of fiat currency denominated capital markets rather...

Probably owing to the dramatic decline in the price of gold and silver, I’ve read scores of year end metal reviews, more than I have ever read previously. Like most of you, I read in order to learn. Therefore, I approach every year end review and outlook with an eye...

Currently, commodity price performance has lulled the speculative (and therefore, the mainstream) community into a sense of complacency. The speed with which accidents can happen and induce overall change in sentiment is something which can only be imagined in the...

The future price of gold cannot be discussed without considering its implied discount rate expressed through time-preference. This is the relative desire to own goods at an earlier date rather than later. There are several reasons gold is almost certainly more...

In early November we turned bearish on the precious metals with the expectation that the sector was about to begin a final plunge that would lead to a V shaped bottom. In our last editorial, we asserted that the bear market was in its final throes. Interestingly,...

Economic predictions are a crap shoot at any time, but especially during times when central bank intervention is running at all-time highs. The markets are more managed and manipulated now than at any point in history. The Federal Reserve is literally propping up...

Gold has been one of the most hated commodities in the world since it peaked in September 2011 at $1923.70 an ounce. At that time, the precious metal was upgraded by J.P. Morgan Chase to $2500 an ounce. As many of you already know, when a major firm upgrades a stock...

If you're like me, you've bought gold due to the money printing policies of most developed countries and the effect those policies will have on the future purchasing power of our paper money. Probably also because there's no viable way for governments to escape the...

There are two types of gold investors: those trying to make money on short-term market timing and those looking for long-term asset preservation. It was the fear-driven trading of the former that helped gold break $1900 in 2011, and for good reason - stormy markets...

2013 was a year in which lots of imbalances built up but none blew up. The US and Japan continued to monetize their debt, in the process cheapening the dollar and sending the yen to five-year lows versus the euro. China allowed its debt to soar with only the hint of...

Gold’s been frustrating, to say the least. Plus, its characteristics changed in September. Gold failed to rise during its best seasonal time, and when the dollar was declining. These factors alone were bearish signs.
In addition, gold jewelry demand was the highest...

The Western super-crisis entered a lull period in 2013, and surging economic growth in America has become the main focus of most mainstream analysts. The stock market tends to lead the economy by about six months, so it’s likely that much of US economic growth in...

What year, 1921 or 2006, did Congress awaken to the fact that it could use the Federal Reserve System to obtain revenue without taxes? When did deficit spending become institutionalized? When did the gradually increasing issuance of Treasury bonds from the Fed...

I’ve often said that trying to stop a bull market has risks. It was certainly precarious to think this year’s run would end anytime soon. By December 27, the S&P 500 Index climbed an astounding 31.86 percent in 2013. We’re also pleased that shareholders in U.S....

Yes folks, it's that time of year again; but unlike old Khayyam who reflected bucolically on the continuing availability of wine, we must turn our thoughts to the dangers and opportunities of the coming year. They are considerable and multi-faceted, but instead of...

Sentiment in the financial markets always gets re-balanced by two variables: time and price. The U.S. dollar underwent a massive bear market from 2002-2008, and bearish sentiment by the end of that bear market reigned supreme. But as dollar bears grew louder in...

So far this year (2013) has been a great year for trading and my 2014 forecast looks to be as good if not even better. I do have something exciting to share with you that is going to make 2014 really amazing, but first let me talk about the stock market and what is...

The best time to buy cheap is when you are afraid to bring up your ideas around the water cooler at work for fear of the peer laughter. Our work centers on looking for oversold conditions and crowd behavioral anomalies that can give us better low risk entries with...

Trading volume across all exchanges has been muted lately due to the holidays. Traders are still mostly on vacation which has produced low volatility and a lack of excitement. Not much is going on in the news front, either.

In our most recent commentary, we discussed the outlook for the USD Index, Euro Index, and how these currencies were likely to impact gold. We summarized the essay by writing that the situation was bullish for the USD Index, and bearish for the euro. We wrote that...

Last week I wrote an article on why I think the bull market in stocks is coming to an end. As usual the retail public is chasing a move that is extremely mature and ripe to reverse, while assuming that the current trend will continue. Amateurs always make this...