Gold gains on bullish outside markets, upbeat U.S.-China trade talks

NEW YORK (September 15) Gold prices are higher and silver prices slightly up near midday Monday. A weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices to start the trading week are price-friendly outside-market elements for the two precious metals. Some positive statements coming from the U.S.-China trade talks are also boosting gold and silver. December gold was last up $17.40 at $3,703.90. December silver prices were up $0.095 at $42.925.

U.S. and Chinese trade officials are holding high-level talks in Madrid, Spain. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the talks are going well, and President Trump said on social media that the two sides are also making very good progress, adding that he will likely talk with Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this week. That’s potentially bullish for gold and silver due to the prospects for better economic growth in both the U.S. and China (better demand for the metals), if they reach a trade deal--and especially for China, whose citizens are major consumers of gold jewelry. The U.S.-China officials also expected to lay the groundwork for a potential meeting between Trump and Xi as soon as October, when they're scheduled to attend a summit in South Korea.

Also somewhat price-friendly for the safe-have metals, Fitch Ratings over the weekend downgraded France's government credit assessment to A+ from AA-, citing the country's rising public indebtedness and political instability. The downgrade comes after the collapse of another French government and amid a battle to contain a bulging debt burden, with Fitch warning that the run-up to the presidential election in 2027 will further limit the scope for fiscal consolidation. Fitch expects France's fiscal deficits to remain above 5% of GDP in 2026-2027 and assumes upcoming budget negotiations will produce a more diluted fiscal consolidation package than previously proposed.

Global markets await the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to deliver a 25-basis point rate cut, the first since November of 2024. The decision comes amid criticism that the Fed has been slow to react to softening U.S. economic data, including a major payroll revision and tariff-driven inflation. Updated Fed projections may show slower growth and rising unemployment, while Chair Jerome Powell is set to face pointed questioning at his post-meeting press conference.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly weaker, while crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $63.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.05%.

The U.S. data release pace picks up strongly on Tuesday.

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