Gold Holds, Silver Surges, and the East Takes Lead

In a wide-ranging interview on the Money Metals podcast, host Mike Maharrey spoke with Philip Newman, Managing Director and founding partner of Metals Focus, one of the most trusted independent research firms in the global precious metals space. 

Founded in 2013, Metals Focus provides data and analysis to major organizations, including the World Gold Council, the Silver Institute, and the World Platinum Investment Council.

Newman emphasized that Metals Focus is unique because it doesn’t trade metals—it simply researches them.

“We don’t trade. We’re not buying and selling. So, our view is truly independent.”

With 31 people working across eight global markets, the firm gathers first-hand intelligence through direct engagement with players in the supply chain—miners, refiners, mints, and dealers alike.

(Interview Starts Around 8:28 Mark) 

Gold Prices: Still High, Still Holding

After hitting a record high above $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, gold has cooled but not collapsed. The market has entered a phase of sideways movement, which Newman sees as constructive, not concerning.

Rather than correcting sharply, gold has demonstrated a capacity to hold its ground, despite occasional profit-taking and investor rotation. Newman views this as a sign of durability.

“It’s encouraging that when we have had bouts of liquidations or profit-taking, those dips have been quite solidly bought into.”

While some analysts, including Citibank, have warned of a possible 25 percent drop in prices, Newman sees no deterioration in the underlying fundamentals that would support such a view.

A Thousand Tons: Central Banks Still Buying

The most important pillar holding up the gold market, according to Newman, is unwavering central bank demand. From 2022 to 2024, net purchases averaged around 30 million ounces per year. For 2025, Metals Focus expects a similar figure—roughly 1,000 metric tons.

That level of buying is either a record or close to it. And it's not just symbolic; it plays an active role in strengthening market sentiment and defending price levels.

“It helps to defend those lows, it helps to support the price, it supports sentiment towards gold.”

This activity isn’t merely reactive or precautionary—it’s part of a broader strategic shift by governments worldwide. Concerns about reserve diversification, currency credibility, and fiscal exposure are all driving this trend.

Trust and Treasuries: What’s Behind the Dollar Doubts

Underpinning much of the bullish case for gold is something far less tangible than ounces and tons: doubt. Specifically, growing concern about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the long-term credibility of the dollar as a global reserve currency.

Newman pointed to rising government debt and the upcoming expiration of Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair in May 2026 as key factors stoking that unease. While the dollar is not imminently threatened, a lingering question mark remains.

“There could be marks over the independence of the new chairman. Doesn’t mean there will be, but again—it’s just some doubt.”

That doubt—about leadership, about consistency, about the future—has real consequences in a market that thrives on confidence. For many investors, gold is not just a hedge against inflation, but a hedge against institutional instability.

Policy Divergence: The Fed Stands Alone

One of the more intriguing dynamics right now is the divergence between U.S. and international monetary policy. Central banks across Europe have already begun easing, and the Swiss National Bank has cut all the way to zero, even suggesting a willingness to dip back into negative territory.

In contrast, the Federal Reserve has held rates steady. Newman believes that decision was both deliberate and prudent. The Fed is attempting to balance inflation concerns against signs of weakness in the broader U.S. economy.

“I would suggest that the bias is much more towards reducing rates,” he said.

The longer the Fed stands pat while others ease, the more room gold has to gain—especially once the U.S. eventually pivots.

Silver Breaks Out—but Is It for Real?

Silver, often viewed as gold’s more volatile cousin, has made headlines of its own in recent weeks. It has surged past key resistance at $35, climbing above $36 and briefly hitting $37 per ounce.

Newman attributes the rally in part to surprise optimism around U.S.-China trade talks. For years, concerns over China’s economy and industrial overcapacity have weighed heavily on silver, which straddles the line between a monetary and an industrial commodity.

“When that news came out about a potential trade deal... that gave a bit of an impetus to silver.”

Whether silver has the legs to keep going is less certain. If it breaks above $37.50 with conviction, there’s a possibility of a sharp upward run. But Newman cautioned that silver’s history of unsustainable spikes should give investors pause.

“You run the risk of accelerating... but having really, in a sense, spiking with not much behind it.”

Retail Activity Turns Two-Way

One of the more interesting observations Newman made came from his time at the 2025 International Precious Metals Institute (IPMI) conference. There, he saw a pronounced shift in retail behavior.

During the height of pandemic-era uncertainty, retail demand was largely one-directional—investors were buying and hoarding. But that changed in late 2023 and has continued into 2025.

“Late 2023, we saw a shift. There’s now strong two-way activity.”

This means there’s not just buying but also meaningful selling. For dealers, this opens up more trading opportunities, but it also puts pressure on demand for newly minted bullion products, as recycled inventory flows back into the market.

East Buys, West Waits

Perhaps the most consequential long-term trend isn’t about price at all—it’s about geography. Newman confirmed that gold demand has increasingly shifted from West to East.

Retail and ETF buying has been robust in China, India, Vietnam, and Singapore, while demand in Europe and North America has lagged. Singapore is even developing its own metals exchange to service this expanding market.

“In the likes of South and East Asia, bar demand has been very strong,” Newman said.

Metals Focus has responded accordingly, planting staff throughout the region in recognition of Asia’s rising influence in the global gold trade. This may not be a temporary blip—it could be a generational rebalancing.

London's Silver Stocks Are Quietly Shrinking

Beyond headlines and charts, one of the more subtle trends may be among the most important: the declining stockpile of unallocated silver in London.

By comparing LBMA vault data to known ETF holdings, Metals Focus has found that the amount of silver not already spoken for has been shrinking.

“At some point, will that create a squeeze in the market? What does that look like?”

The implications aren’t fully clear. It may not lead to a price spike, but it could affect lease rates or physical availability. The key takeaway is that silver’s supply side is tightening, quietly but steadily.

A Tariff Shock and a Transatlantic Airlift

One of the more dramatic episodes of 2025 followed the U.S.’s Liberation Day tariff threats. In response, a sudden dislocation emerged between CME (New York) and LBMA (London) pricing.

What followed was extraordinary: massive volumes of physical gold and silver were air-freighted from Europe to New York to arbitrage the gap.

“For silver to be air-freighted from Europe... we haven’t seen that in at least a generation.”

Lease rates spiked. Market logistics strained. And analysts scrambled to keep up with the velocity of change. For Newman, it was a reminder of how quickly market conditions can transform under geopolitical stress.

Can We Track Silver in Defense Spending?

Defense budgets are rising globally, but how much silver is being consumed in that expansion? According to Newman, we simply don’t know—and we probably never will.

Unlike solar demand, which is well-documented and transparent, defense-related consumption is buried under layers of manufacturing and secrecy.

“We can’t measure the level of defense spending... the final end use is often three or four stages removed.”

Rather than guess at the unknown, Metals Focus focuses on broad industrial trends and aggregate demand. For now, defense is a blind spot in an otherwise data-rich field.

What Analysts Might Be Missing

Newman closed with two under-the-radar dynamics that he believes deserve more attention.

The first is the shrinking pool of unallocated silver in London—a development that, while not yet urgent, could become a structural pressure point. The second is the remarkable volatility triggered by policy uncertainty earlier this year, especially the tariff threat and its ripple effects through global logistics and pricing.

“It was remarkable to watch how the market was functioning in those extreme circumstances.”

Markets don’t just respond to fundamentals—they respond to incentives, perception, and uncertainty. And that, in Newman’s view, is what investors must never forget.

Learn More

To explore research, forecasts, and market data from Philip Newman and his team, visit metalsfocus.com. 

As the conversation with Mike Maharrey made clear, gold and silver remain deeply embedded in a world shaped by political uncertainty, shifting global power, and evolving investor behavior. The East is buying. Central banks are stockpiling. And the market, quietly and relentlessly, is changing.

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