Gold Editorials & Commentary

In Part 1 we covered Speculative Bubbles and the Intermediate Gold Targets. Here we will look at the new factors that will shape future bubbles and the different precious metal investment vehicles.

We believe the Credit Cycle has turned and with it will come some massive unexpected shocks. One of these will be the fall out in the Bond Market, centered around the dramatic growth explosion in Bond ETFs coupled with the post financial crisis regulatory changes...

Perhaps it may be lesser known than his other Laws, but Murphy wrote one for the basis analysis. It goes like this. If we observe that the fundamental price of a metal is far removed from the market price, the two won’t likely converge the next week. On the other...

Switzerland will hold a referendum to decide whether to ban commercial banks from creating money. What does it imply for the global economy and the gold market?

When it comes to the Fed’s ability to normalize interest rates, I have very little faith that they will be able to do this without bankrupting the US and its financial system at the same time. If you don’t believe me, then why don’t you ask the former chairman Ben...

Our attention this week will be more to the cycles and planets than to the charts. Last weekend, we were looking for a 4/8 stock market cycle low due early in the week followed by a possible top either December 29 or 30th and then weakness for the rest of the week....

The analysis of the weekly SPX chart gives us a better sense of what the index is doing. Taking into consideration the intermediate term cyclic climate, we could easily see an intermediate correction starting at the secondary high of 2116 continue into March or...

Sentiment towards gold has been so bearish lately that you might think the yellow metal declined by 50% or more during 2015. While it was down 11% in US dollar terms, gold actually advanced in most major currencies during the past year. Out of the 17 major...

The revaluations of price/earnings multiples will have been triggered by the long-term trend reversal in interest rates. This could have cataclysmic effects, given the unusual nature of today's environment, as outlined hereunder.

That title pretty much sizes up where we are in transiting to the New Year. As was the case in 2013 and 2014, Gold throughout 2015 continued to be outed, disparaged and impugned; we now see 2016 as the year the general equities markets get screwed.

Lots of chop for markets as we wound down a so-so year. Setups are forming and traders will return this coming week. Consequently, volume will pick back up. And if all goes well, leading stocks will begin to breakout higher with markets following as this bull...

Current investing model favors bonds over equities. Therefore, investors should overweigh their portfolios with bonds over stocks for safety. Cash is also a position for those who are un-invested or under invested until this model favors equities again.

Gold sector is on major sell signal. Cycle is down. A recovery is in progress but condition continues to be very choppy.Silver is on a long-term sell signal and investors should be in cash or short. Short- term is on buy signal. Nimble traders can play for a bounce...

Technical Analysis Of The Markets Via Videos

Despite my hesitation writing another piece like this, love seem to love prediction articles. It used to be easier an easier task to simply identify and go with the trends, but so much is now up to the whims of our central planners that it is nearly impossible to...

I personally believe gold will bottom in 2016. The main reason is the Fed will probably not be able to raise rates four times in 2016 without causing panic in the financial markets. For the Examiner I wrote a series on why the Fed couldn’t raise rates.

For some months now, I have been experimenting with some new charts. Purely by chance I found long-term data of the DJIA on the data base of the Brazilian Central Bank in the form of the monthly close, going back to before 1900. (Thanks Google)

Here is a long-term chart (monthly) showing where the price of gold ended last year (2014) -- and where it is ending up this year. I have drawn in two Fibonacci retracement levels formed off of the entire rally beginning in 2001 to the final top in 2011. As you can...

Gold certainly had a rough year in 2015, grinding inexorably lower on Fed-rate-hike fears and investor abandonment. But gold is poised to rebound dramatically in this new year, mean reverting out of its recent deep secular lows. The drivers of gold’s weakness have...

This coming New Year of 2016 is the year of the Monkey, according to the Chinese calendar. Will this cause wild gyrations in the Chinese and World stock markets, which are symbolized by the volatile nature of the Monkey? Many do not believe that China can derail the...

The market price of gold would be considerably higher if it wasn’t for the massive stock dilution and debt in the gold mining industry. Basically, the gold mining industry issued billions of new shares and debt to help replace production and to compensate for...

The US trucking industry is slowing down. What does it imply for the US economy and the gold market?

Since gold topped out in 2011, it has been in a confirmed and unrelenting bear market. Since that bull market high in gold, the INDU has been outperforming gold in a big way. The first chart I would like to show you is a combo chart, which has the INDU:GOLD ratio...

The precious metals sector will close 2015 entrenched in a seemingly forever bear market. Most of the sector has been in a bear market for over four and a half years. Gold’s bear market will reach four and a half years in a few months. Meanwhile the US Dollar’s bull...

We can all give many reasons why the gold price should be substantially higher. But reality trumps our reasoning, along with our wishes and desires. This is no more evident than in today's market for the precious yellow metal.

Financial writer Bill Holter says all the talk of the so-called “recovery” and reaching “escape velocity is imminent” have been total lies. Holter explains, “We have heard the word ‘recovery’ for seven years . . . we’ve never gotten to the expansion phase.

2015 has been quite a year and we have generally seen what I had expected from the market. The few bears in this market at the start of the year have now been joined by those who were formerly bullish. So, now, the bears are bearish and even the bulls are bearish...

As we wind up the year, let's first briefly look at where we are and then wrap up with a most very basic concept "it is hoped" you will never see ...until it's too late? Before getting started I would like to apologize to readers as apparently the "political...

US consumer spending rose 0.3 percent in November. What does it mean for the gold market?

As we move into the 5th year of this correction in the metals, I would like to take us back a bit in history before we move forward to our expectations, which should be instructive as to how we will be turning bullish in 2016. I also want to review how we treat...