Best Indicator for Recession & Stock Market Downturn

Author, CMT, and Editor @ The Daily Gold
June 18, 2024

The steepening in the yield curve from inversion to above 0 is the best indicator of an imminent recession. The decline in the 2-year yield relative to the Fed Funds rate usually precedes the start of rate cuts, which is bearish for the stock market and economy in the context of the recession signal.

The Daily Gold


Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT is a Chartered Market Technician and member of the Market Technicians Association. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premiuma publication which emphasizes market timing and stock selection, as well as TheDailyGold Global, an add-on service for subscribers which covers global capital markets. He is also the author of the 2015 book, The Coming Renewal of Gold’s Secular Bull Market which is available for free. was recently named one of the top 50 Investment Blogs by DailyReckoning and WalletHub.

Nevada accounts for 75% of U.S. gold production.
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