Both Parties Won. And Gold?

November 8, 2018

US mid-term elections are behind us. Surprisingly, both parties won! How is it possible? Let’s read our article and find out! We will also explain what the election results imply for the world and the gold market.

Democrats Win

The elections were very interesting. We provide you with the key takeaways, focusing on the possible implications for the precious metals. First, Democrats took control of the House, the first time in eight years. Their victory will make it harder for Trump to push his agenda forward. Given that investors liked his pro-business stance, the change should upset the Wall Street. It implies weaker greenback, while stronger gold.

Republicans Win, Too

Second, Republicans kept control of the Senate. Actually, they increased their majority in the upper chamber of Congress. It means that although Democrats improved their position, their triumph is below the (inflated) expectations. You see, this is what usually happens in the mid-term elections: voters punish the incumbent party. So, the retaking control of the House is not a surprise. This is why we have not seen a significant move in the gold market.

But there was no blue wave, even though the turnout was historically high, which was supportive for Democrats (typically, older and whiter people vote in mid-term elections, but that time Democrats managed to mobilize their base). Moreover, given money, momentum and the retirement of several Republican representatives, the results are not really impressive for Democrats.

If Both Parties Win, Who Loses Then?

Hence, we could say that both parties won (or both lost). The biggest loser is the American politics and society. The country is highly polarized and split into two camps. It implies that politicians will be less capable of finding common ground. More divisions and less cooperation is a great recipe for lack of any reforms and drifting towards the crisis. Just think about the high level of public debt. If investors faith in US fiscal capacity diminishes, gold may shine.

And What About Gold?

The election results were broadly as expected. Therefore, as one can see in the chart below, the price of gold was slightly moved, despite some fluctuations during the day.

Chart 1: Gold prices from November 5 to November 7, 2018.

But what about the future? Well, the initial move in the US dollar may be telling. As the chart below shows, the greenback weakened against the euro (although it rebounded later).

Chart 2: EUR/USD exchange rate from November 5 to November 7, 2018.

It may reflect the fact that Democrats will have the ability to investigate the President. More investigations into Trump’s scandals or even the impeachment vote could rattle the markets and increase the safe-haven demand for gold.

And, as we have already mentioned, Democrats will block Trump’s agenda. Investors could forget now about a second round of tax cuts, as the President will be unable to make any major legislative changes without the approval of the Democrats (but there may be some room to work together on certain issues, in particular on a spending package to improve infrastructure).

Although it’s too early to fully assess the impact of the mid-term elections, we see more upside than downside risks for gold. However, with a split U.S. Congress, there will be a political gridlock. It means that economic factors will become even more important drivers of the gold prices. It’s actually not good news for gold, given the hot economy and the Fed’s tightening of the monetary policy. By the way, today we will see the fresh monetary policy statement. Powell is expected to keep the interest rates unchanged – but who knows? Stay tuned!

Thank you.

Arkadiusz Sieron

Sunshine Profits - Free Gold Analysis

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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Arkadiusz Sieroń is the author of Sunshine Profits’ monthly gold Market Overview report, in which he keeps subscribers up-to-date regarding key fundamental developments affecting the gold market and helps them prepare for the major changes. Arkadiusz is a certified Investment Adviser, a long-time precious metals market enthusiast and a Ph.D. candidate. He is also a Laureate of the 6th International Vernon Smith Prize.  You can reach Arkadiusz at Sunshine Profits’ contact page.

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