first majestic silver

CRB Index Deep Dive

February 6, 2017

If you are going to trade the commodity sector, you had best follow the USD, which is why I do.  If I am correct that the USD’s longer 15 Year Super Cycle is toping in 2017, then the CRB will be a fun sector where we will focus.

With respect to Weinstein’s 4 Stage Model, here is a great site that is the best I have found that covers his model quite well.

(4 Stages: 1 = Basing, 2 = Bull, 3 = Toping, 4 = Bear)

http://www.nextbigtrade.com/stage-analysis/

If the USD is topping then inflation will start to show up in the CRB with Gold and Silver leading the way…  

So with that as background, lets examine the broader CRB using Weinstein’s 4 Stage Model.  I show the CRB in Stage 1 Basing but making the case for an emerging Bull market.

Next are smaller charts showing my 4-Stage analysis for the CRB’s various components:

  1. Oil: Either Basing in Stage 1 or early in Stage 2 of a new Bull.  Looks more like Basing to me.
  2. NatGas: Looks like Stage 2 Bull but Price needs to continue to find support near the weekly 30ema
  3. Copper: Big move here but could also be part of the Basing of challenging the 30 and 66 EMAs.

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Soft Commodities:

  1. Sugar: Stage 2 Bull to me
  2. Coffee: Coffee can be very choppy for short periods so a long term stage analysis may not apply
  3. Soybeans, Corn and Wheat: All three are Still Basing in Stage 1 for now

Courtesy of https://surfcity.co/category/gold/

Surf City is a pseudonym for a 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.   He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55. In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert’s Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein’s Stage 4 Market analysis.  Surf combines these skills to develop his unique “Cycle Price Channels.”  Some call them “Surf’s ForkCycles.


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