Current Position Of The Market

September 20, 2020
Expert Market Analyst & Founder of Market Turning Points

SPX is still essentially basing until it gets above 3380. During this process, it must remain above 3330, or something else (to be determined) is taking place.

This proved to be the key comment of the day. What I determined, after the close, is that the 20-td cycle must have bottomed exactly 20 days from its last low. Under normal circumstances, this would mean that we should now have our expected rally. However, it was just announced that justice Ginsburg just passed away. I do not know what effect this will have on the market, if any.

SPX has made a 35 points recovery from its low, but we still cannot call this a reversal. The hourly indicators have improved but have not given a buy signal, and there is no congestion at the low that can be called a base. It is possible to make a V-shaped bottom, and perhaps this is what we did. We’ll know Monday.

GDX pulled back into the close.

SPX has recovered almost 30 points and is not selling off, so it may not be done. Resistance starts about 10 points higher, but it is now up against a downtrend line.

The SPX found a low and rebounded, but the buying is of an oversold quality and not very aggressive, so we’ll have to do better than that. But that positive divergence is looking a little better.

GDX did very little in this decline.

It’s as bad as it seems! Steady selling took the index well below the maximum I had expected. I will note that there is strong positive divergence at the hourly level but it’s not enough to say that we’re done. We need to hold and start to rally. Also, we are at the bottom of a channel! And I could make a case for a projection in this area. So, let’s see what this does for us

It’s not as bad as it seems! The hourly indicators were very oversold and had to work their way out of that position before we could find a low. Now, we have positive divergence in the CCI and the A-Ds are not that negative. Could see 3315-20 before finding a low.

Yesterday, I thought we could go to 3340 before finding a low. Is that what we are doing?

SPX is still essentially basing until it gets above 3380. During this process, it must remain above 3330, or something else (to be determined) is taking place.

GDX also needs a little more basing.

Futures held up during the night and are now up 10 points, suggesting that the cycle has made its low and is starting to exert some upside pressure. This is expected to continue over the next few days and most likely throughout all of next week. Upside projection is still undetermined.

GDX is not doing much but should benefit from a rising market.


Andre Gratian

When Andre Gratian was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced him to technical analysis of the market. Consequently, it is not an exaggeration to say that Andre fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of his professional life. Gratian has studied the works of Wyckoff, Edwards & Magee, Edward J. Dewey (cycles) and many others. However, one of my most profitable undertaking has probably been to study Point & Figure charting, which he finds invaluable in analyzing stocks and indices. If he were restricted to one methodology, this is the one that he would choose. This well-rounded background has given him what he feels to be a special insight into the stock market, facilitating the recognition of meaningful patterns and the ‘turning points’ in all trends, whether they be short or long term.  Andre feels very comfortable discussing the stock market and passing on meaningful information to others. His subscribers include individuals and money managers throughout the world. Moreover, his Newsletters are currently published on several financial sites, here and abroad.

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