Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, SP500 And GDX

Gold 

Short-Term Update:

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and early in the overnight session, reaching a high of 1220.90. Later in the overnight session gold dropped to a low of 1213.00, at the time that this Post was being written.  

On the Intraday Chart we now appear to have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed impulsive wave structure from 1338.30 to the current low of 1201.30.

If this is now the end of wave .a. we should now expect a rally in our second wave .b., to be the next big event in this market.

We have now also reached our 50% retracement level for all of wave -ii-, but the second 3 wave pattern is incomplete, so we doubt the 1201.30 low is the end of all of wave -ii-. Our retracement levels for all of wave   -ii- are:

50% = 1211.50;

61.8% =  1172.30.

When our second wave .a. ends, we expect that our second wave .b. will retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire second wave .a. drop. We will provide those retracement levels when we are sure that all of our second wave .a. is complete.

Longer-Term Update

Gold has still NOT completed its wave -ii- correction, as it appears that this pattern is becoming a more complex a 3 wave double correction. We have also updated the Weekly Gold Chart.

Active Trading Positions: Long 30 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

S&P500 

Short-Term Update

The S&P reached all-time new highs in yesterday’s day session, and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are up about 6 points, at the time that this Post was being written. It might be possible that the S&P is going significantly higher now.                                                                                                  

Long-Term Update

Uncertain, but a break above 2186.96, should send this market sharply higher.

Active Trading Positions: Flat!

GDX

Short-Term Update

Not much happened in the GDX in yesterday’s trading session. If all of wave .a. in gold is complete at the 1201.30 low then all of wave a in the GDX is complete at the 20.13 low.

In that case we should expect our second wave b rally to begin very soon.  

As you can see on the updated Daily GDX Chart it appears that wave 2 is becoming more complex in a double 3 wave pattern.

Our updated count for wave 2 is:

a = 25.17;

b = 28.56;

c = 22.50;

x = 25.93;

a = 20.13, if complete;

b rally is next after wave a ends.

Our retracement levels for end of all of wave 2 are:

50% = 22.10;

61.8% = 19.81.

Long-Term Update

We now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 has now becoming more complex.

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

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