Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, S&P500 And GDX

Gold

Short-Term Update

Gold was higher in yesterday’s day session and again in the overnight session as we reached a high of 1263.30, at the time that this post was being written.    

We have now exceeded our wave ^i^ high of 1261.00, and if all of wave ^i^ ended at that high then it now looks like wave ^ii^ has become an irregular type correction.

In terms of wave ^ii^ it only corrected to 1238.50, which is still short of our 50% retracement level which is 1228.00, so it may not be complete at that low.

Gold price is relatively strong, considering the strength in the USDX.

There is still an outside chance that wave ^i^ is still underway.

For the time being we will assume that all of wave ^i^ is complete at the 1261.40 high and we are now falling in wave ^ii^. Wave ^ii^ is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave ^i^ rally. Those retracement levels are: 

50% = 1228.00;

61.8% = 1220.10.

We expect further weakness until we reach our 50% retracement level.  

Our first projection for the end of wave *iii* is:

*iii* = 1.618*i* = 1392.40.  

Our updated count for all of wave -iii- is:

.i.:

*i* = 1246.60;

*ii*:

^a^ = 1217.50;

^b^ = 1264.90;

^c^ = 1194.50, to complete all of wave *ii*;

*iii*:

^i^ = 1261.00, if complete;

^ii^ = 1238.50, if complete, although wave ^ii^ is expected to retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave ^i^ rally;

^iii^ rally after wave ^ii^ ends.

Longer-Term Update

Gold looks to have completed its wave -ii- correction, at the 1124.30 low, and we are now rallying in an explosive wave -iii-. We have updated the Weekly gold Chart(03/25/17) showing our projections for the end of wave -iii-. The key for gold this year will to break above our purple long term down trend line. A break above that line will see gold move sharply higher.  

Our first and second projections for the end of wave -iii-, as shown on the Weekly Gold Chart, are :

-iii-=1.618-i-=1661.80;

-iii-=2.618-i-=1993.70.

Active Trading Positions: Long 40 positions, with puts at 1250.00!

Short term gamblers: short gold at 1263(June), stop at 1264, target at 1256!

S&P500 

Short-Term Update

The S&P was lower in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are down about 9 points, at the time that this Post was being written.    

As shown on the Daily S&P Chart, we now have at least a completed 3 wave drop from the 2400.89 high to the 2322.25 low. Unfortunately, this 3 wave drop could develop into many more complex patterns, so we are still not sure what wave -iv- is going to look like in terms of a larger corrective pattern.

It could become a flat, irregular or even a bullish triangle pattern.

More trading time will be required before we can refine our analysis for wave -iv-.   We do however, expect that wave -iv- should retrace between 23.6 to 38.2% of the entre wave -iii- rally.

Our retracement levels for all of wave -iv- are:

23.6% = 2304.32;

38.2% = 2244.65.

We will hold our short positions for the upcoming wave -iv- correction.                                                                                                

Long-Term Update

Wave (v) is underway with wave -iii- almost being complete. Upon completion of wave -iii-, we expect a wave -iv- drop followed by a wave -v- rally.

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2280 calls as stops!

GDX 

Short-Term Update

The GDX was higher in yesterday’s day session, as our wave ^ii^ correction continues to develop. We are very close to entering our 50% retracement level, as our current low is 22.55, which is about 20 ticks above our 50% retracement level of 22.35.  

We believe that all of wave ^i^ ended at 23.56 and we are now falling in wave ^ii^. Retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:

50 %= 22.35;

61.8% = 22.06.

Our first projection for the end of all of wave (iii) is:

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 32.68

Our current count for all of wave 3 is:

i:

(i) = 25.71;

(ii) = 21.14;

(iii):

^i^ = 23.56;

^ii^ drop is now underway.

Long-Term Update

In the GDX, we now believe that all of wave 1 ended at 31.79 and that wave 2 at the 18.68 low also.  A sharp wave 3 rally is now underway.

The wave 3 rally in the GDX will likely follow the same graphically picture that we have shown on the Daily Gold Chart. Our first and second projection for end of wave 3 is:

3=1.618(1)=49.95;

3=2.618(1)=68.98

As with gold and silver this wave 3 impulsive sequence will consist of 5 subdivisions. 

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

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Free Trades Offer For Gold-Eagle Readers:  Send me an email to [email protected] and I’ll send you my next couple short term ewave trades for free!

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